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Journal Article
How fast can the new economy grow?
Working Paper
Is there a bank credit channel for monetary policy?
Journal Article
Interest rates and monetary policy
Journal Article
The Fed's interest rate risk
To make financial conditions more supportive of economic growth, the Federal Reserve has purchased large amounts of longer-term securities in recent years. The Fed's resulting securities portfolio has generated substantial income but may incur financial losses when market interest rates rise. Such interest rate risk appears modest, especially relative to the Fed's policy objectives of full employment and price stability.
Journal Article
Optimal policy and market-based expectations
Financial market prices contain valuable information about investors? views regarding future interest rates, inflation, and other economic variables. However, such market-based expectations can be hard to interpret because changes in risk and liquidity premiums also affect asset prices. In practice, policymakers should be cautious in relying on the expectations information in market prices.
Working Paper
Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy
During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third ...
Discussion Paper
Scoring the leading indicators
Journal Article
Monetary policy and monetary institutions
Working Paper
Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields
We construct probability forecasts for episodes of price deflation (i.e., a falling price level) using yields on nominal and real U.S. Treasury bonds. The deflation probability forecasts identify two "deflation scares" during the past decade: a mild one following the 2001 recession, and a more serious one starting in late 2008 with the deepening of the financial crisis. The estimated deflation probabilities are generally consistent with those from macroeconomic models and surveys of professional forecasters, but they also provide highfrequency insight into the views of financial market ...
Working Paper
The uncertain unit root in real GNP