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Author:Rudebusch, Glenn D. 

Working Paper
Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium

Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. We investigate these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. We show that there is no structural relationship running from the term premium to economic activity, but a reduced-form empirical analysis does suggest that a decline in the term premium has typically been associated with stimulus to real economic activity, which contradicts earlier results in the literature.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-46

Working Paper
Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models

Empirical estimates of monetary policy rules suggest that the behavior of U.S. monetary policymakers changed during the past few decades. However, at the same time, statistical analyses of lagged representations of the economy, such as VARs, often have not rejected the null of structural stability. These two sets of empirical results appear to contradict the Lucas critique. This paper provides a reconciliation by showing that the apparent policy invariance of reduced forms is consistent with the magnitude of historical policy shifts and the relative insensitivity of the reduced forms of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2002-02

Working Paper
Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 146

Working Paper
Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields

Differences between yields on comparable-maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so-called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an estimated affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-34

Journal Article
Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?

Over the past two years, both monetary and fiscal policy projections have been based on the view that declines in the long-run potential growth rate of the economy will in turn push down interest rates. In contrast, examination of private-sector professional forecasts and historical data provides little evidence of such a linkage. This suggests a greater risk that future interest rates may be higher than expected.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium

Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. This paper investigates these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. The authors show that there is no structural relationship running from the term premium to economic activity, but a reduced-form empirical analysis does suggest that a decline in the term premium has typically been associated with stimulus to real economic activity, which contradicts earlier results in the ...
Review , Volume 89 , Issue Jul , Pages 241-270

Journal Article
How fast can the new economy grow?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?

Using data for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we test for the existence of a broad credit channel for monetary policy, which operates through the total supply of loans. Our test focuses on the relationship between internal funds and business investment. After a monetary tightening, we find that this relationship becomes much closer for small firms but not for large firms. In contrast, after a monetary easing, the relationship is little changed for all firms. This evidence supports the existence of a broad credit channel.
Economic Review

Journal Article
How did the economy surprise us in 1998?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process involves guiding financial market expectations of future central bank actions. Recently, a few central banks have started to explicitly signal their future policy intentions to the public, and two of these banks have even begun publishing their internal interest rate projections. We examine the macroeconomic effects of direct revelation of a central bank's expectations about the future path of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-31

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