Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.
1997 job outlook: the New York-New Jersey region
Major industrial and government restructurings have dominated employment reports in the New York-New Jersey region, leading to widespread pessimism about the region's job prospects. Nevertheless, for the past several years, the two states have managed to achieve modest job gains. In 1997, employment growth in New York and New Jersey will accelerate slightly as the pace of restructurings slows.
New York - New Jersey job expansion to moderate in 2001
New York City will set the pace for job growth in the New York-New Jersey region in 2001, with employment advancing 1.9 percent over the year. For the region as a whole, the rate of job growth will drop to 1.5 percent, from 2.2 percent in 2000.
Job growth in New York and New Jersey: mid-2007 review and outlook
Employment in the New York-New Jersey region expanded by about 0.9 percent in 2006. Slightly slower job growth - on the order of 0.8 percent - was recorded in the first half of 2007 and is expected to continue throughout the year, in part reflecting moderating growth in the national economy. The employment rise in New York State was led by a strong expansion of services jobs in New York City; any sustained weakening in the city's financial sector would be unlikely to affect employment significantly until 2008.
Recent developments in New York City's economy
Against the background of widespread expectations of slower than normal growth in the national economy, this article examines the current state of New York City's economy. The author considers both the cyclical sources of strength available to the local economy and the structural forces that may impede growth.
Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey
The New York-New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that the national economy is headed for recovery, suggest that the worst may be over for the region's economy. However, a downsizing of the area's critical finance sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward--particularly for New York City.
New York and New Jersey poised for modest job growth in 2005
Combined employment in New York and New Jersey will expand by 1.1 percent in 2005, following projected growth of 0.9 percent in 2004. Slower than expected growth in the U.S. economy or a falloff in financial market activity, however, could jeopardize the states' employment outlook. Subseries: Second District Highlights.
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...
Update on the Second District's economy
The author uses broad-based indicators such as employment, personal income, and retail sales to assess the state of the economy in the Federal Reserve's Second District. Specific attention is given to certain broad trends that have influenced regional growth, including the reduction in defense spending, the weakness in the European economies, and intense international and national competition.
Second District update: a moderate recovery is in progress
After a prolonged recession, the Second District's economy began to expand in the second half of 1993. Several indicatorsthe growing volume of exports from the region, strong earnings on Wall Street, and job growth at newly formed businessessuggest that the recovery can be sustained in the quarters immediately ahead. In a supplemental analysis, the authors find that new small firms are the primary source of job generation in New York State, although they note that such firms also carry a higher risk of failure.