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Author:Roman, Raluca 

Working Paper
Unexpected Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run

A key policy issue is whether bank bailouts weaken or strengthen market discipline. We address this by analyzing how bank bailouts influence deposit quantities and prices of recipients versus other banks. Using the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailouts, we find both deposit quantities and prices decline, consistent with substantially reduced demand for deposits by bailed-out banks that dominate market discipline supply effects. Main findings are robust to numerous checks and endogeneity tests. However, diving deeper into depositor heterogeneity suggests nuances. Increases in uninsured ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-10

Working Paper
Bank Stress Test Results and Their Impact on Consumer Credit Markets

Using Federal Reserve (Fed) confidential stress test data, we exploit the gap between the Fed and bank capital projections as an exogenous shock to banks and analyze how this shock is transmitted to consumer credit markets. First, we document that banks in the 90th percentile of the capital gap reduce their new supply of risky credit by 13 percent compared with those in the 10th percentile and cut their overall credit card risk exposure on an annual basis. Next, we show that these banks find alternative ways to remain competitive and attract customers by lowering interest rates and offering ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-30

Working Paper
Do bank bailouts reduce or increase systemic risk? the effects of TARP on financial system stability

Theory suggests that bank bailouts may either reduce or increase systemic risk. This paper is the first to address this issue empirically, analyzing the U.S. Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Difference-in-difference analysis suggests that TARP significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for larger and safer banks located in better local economies. This occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel. {{p}} Results are robust to additional tests, including accounting for potential endogeneity and selection bias. Findings yield policy conclusions about the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 16-8

Working Paper
Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed? How Relationship Borrowers Fare during the COVID-19 Crisis

We analyze loan contract terms, investigating whether relationship borrowers fare better or worse than others in times of need, using the COVID-19 crisis as a quasi-natural experiment. COVID-19 is superior to prior crises for such analysis because its public health and government restrictions shocks directly harm borrowers, rather than banks. Our dataset includes Y-14Q, covering syndicated and non syndicated loans and small and large firms, unlike some other datasets. We find the dark side of relationships dominates across four relationship measures, 14 COVID-19 shocks, and PPP participation. ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-13

Working Paper
Internationalization and bank risk

This paper documents a positive relation between internationalization and bank risk. This is consistent with the empirical dominance of the market risk hypothesis ? whereby internationalization increases banks' risk due to market-specific factors in foreign markets ? over the diversification hypothesis ? whereby internationalization allows banks to reduce risk through diversification of their operations. The results continue to hold following a variety of robustness tests, including endogeneity and sample selection bias. We also find that the magnitude of this effect is more pronounced during ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-8

Working Paper
A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt

High levels of subprime consumer debt can create social problems. We test the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) bailouts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crisis, respectively, on this debt. We use over 11 million credit bureau observations of individual consumer debt combined with banking, bailout, and local market data. We find that subprime consumers with more TARP institutions in their markets had significantly increased debt burdens following these bailouts. In contrast, PPP bailouts were associated with reduced ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-32

Journal Article
Enforcement Actions and Bank Loan Contracting

Raluca A. Roman finds that bank loans initiated after an enforcement action have lower interest rates than loans initiated before an enforcement action.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 69-100

Working Paper
Shareholder activism in banking

This paper conducts the first assessment of shareholder activism in banking and its effects on risk and performance. The focus is on the conflicts among bank shareholders, managers, and creditors (e.g., regulators, deposit insurer, taxpayers, depositors). This paper finds activism may generally be a destabilizing force, increasing bank risk-taking, but creating market value for shareholders, and leaving operating returns unchanged, consistent with the empirical dominance of the Shareholder-Creditor Conflict. However, during financial crises, the increase in risk disappears, suggesting ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-9

Working Paper
Did saving Wall Street really save Main Street : the real effects of TARP on local economic conditions

We investigate whether saving Wall Street through the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) really saved Main Street during the recent financial crisis. Our difference-in-difference analysis suggests that TARP statistically and economically significantly increased net job creation and net hiring establishments and decreased business and personal bankruptcies. The results are robust, including accounting for endogeneity. The main mechanisms driving the results appear to be increases in commercial real estate lending and off-balance sheet real estate guarantees. These results suggest that ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-13

Working Paper
Bank Size and Household Financial Sentiment: Surprising Evidence from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

We analyze comparative advantages/disadvantages of small and large banks in improving household sentiment regarding financial conditions. We match sentiment data from the University Of Michigan Surveys Of Consumers with local banking market data from 2000 to 2014. Surprisingly, the evidence suggests that large rather than small banks have significant comparative advantages in boosting household sentiment. Findings are robust to instrumental variables and other econometric methods. Additional analyses are consistent with both scale economies and the superior safety of large banks as channels ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-4

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