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Working Paper
How do FOMC actions and U.S. macroeconomic data announcements move Brazilian sovereign yield spreads and stock prices?
This paper provides a robust structural identification of the effects of U.S. interest rates on an emerging economy's asset values. Using newly available intraday data, we investigate how surprises associated with U.S. macro data and FOMC announcements move the yield spread on a benchmark Brazilian government dollar-denominated bond and the Brazilian broad stock price index. Our study covers the period February 1999 to April 2005. We find that FOMC announcements that lead to an increase in U.S. interest rates are associated with a systematic increase in Brazil's bond spread and a systematic ...
Working Paper
News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements
Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are ...
Working Paper
Private payments systems in historical perspective: the Banco Central system of Mexico.
Payments systems have grown considerably and have become increasingly complex, prompting regulators to reassess their roles and renewing interest in historical experiences with payments systems. In this paper, I study the Banco Central System of Mexico, which was a bank note par redemption and clearing system for other payments that operated in Mexico City from 1899 until 1913. I first describe the origins of the Banco Central System. I then consider whether it became prone to behavioral problems, as some observers contended. I find that although Banco Central was less well-positioned to ...
Working Paper
Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Brazil, Chile and Mexico?
In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better ...
Working Paper
Liquidity and reserve requirements in Brazil
The international reform initiative that followed the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has resulted in the introduction of liquidity requirements for banks. Under one requirement, the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), banks will need to hold enough highly liquid assets to survive for a month in a stress scenario. Banks' required reserve balances can be used to fulfill this liquidity requirement and this may be seen as an attractive option for emerging market economies, where financial sectors are often underdeveloped. In this paper, I examine the Brazilian experience prior to and during the ...