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Author:Prescott, Edward C. 

Journal Article
Theory ahead of business cycle measurement

Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Fall , Pages 9-22

Journal Article
Inflation targeting in a St. Louis model of the 21st century - commentary

Review , Volume 78 , Issue May , Pages 112-117

Fiat Value in the Theory of Value

We explore monetary policy in a world without currency. In our world, money is a form of government debt that bears interest, which can be negative as well as positive. Services of money are a factor of production. We show that the national accounts must be revised in this world. Using our baseline economy, we determine the balanced growth paths for a set of money interest rate target policy regimes. Besides this interest rate, the only policy variable that differs across regimes is either the labor income tax rate or the inflation rate. We find that Friedman monetary satiation without ...
Staff Report , Paper 530

Technical appendix: on financing retirement with an aging population

Staff Report , Paper 473

Needed: a theory of total factor productivity

This paper evaluates the argument that differences in physical and intangible capital can account for the large international income differences that characterize the world economy today. The finding is that they cannot. Savings rate differences are of minor importance. What is all-important is total factor productivity. In addition, the paper presents industry evidence that total factor productivities differ across countries and time for reasons other than differences in the publicly available stock of technical knowledge. These findings lead me to conclude a theory of TFP is needed. This ...
Staff Report , Paper 242

Journal Article
Response to a skeptic

Quarterly Review , Volume 10 , Issue Fall , Pages 28-33

A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory

During the downturn of 2008?2009, output and hours fell significantly, but labor productivity rose. These facts have led many to conclude that there is a significant deviation between observations and current macrotheories that assume business cycles are driven, at least in part, by fluctuations in total factor productivities of firms. We show that once investment in intangible capital is included in the analysis, there is no inconsistency. Measured labor productivity rises if the fall in output is underestimated; this occurs when there are large unmeasured intangible investments. ...
Staff Report , Paper 494

Liquidity constraints in economies with aggregate fluctuations: a quantitative exploration

Staff Report , Paper 149

RBC Methodology and the Development of Aggregate Economic Theory

This essay reviews the development of neoclassical growth theory, a unified theory of aggregate economic phenomena that was first used to study business cycles and aggregate labor supply. Subsequently, the theory has been used to understand asset pricing, growth miracles and disasters, monetary economics, capital accounts, aggregate public finance, economic development, and foreign direct investment. {{p}} The focus of this essay is on real business cycle (RBC) methodology. Those who employ the discipline behind the methodology to address various quantitative questions come up with ...
Staff Report , Paper 527

Journal Article
Aggregate labor supply

Macroeconomics has made tremendous advances following the introduction of labor supply into the field. Today, it is widely acknowledged that labor supply matters for many key economic issues, particularly for business cycles and tax policy analysis. However, the extent to which labor supply matters for such questions depends on the aggregate labor supply elasticity?that is, the sensitivity of the time allocation between market and nonmarket activities. For several decades, the magnitude of the aggregate labor supply elasticity has been the subject of much debate. In this article, we review ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 35 , Issue Oct


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