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Author:Potter, Simon M. 

Report
Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points

This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter model with a change point every period and the change-point model with a small number of regimes. We focus on the construction of reasonable hierarchical priors both for regime durations and for the parameters that characterize each regime. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior sampler is constructed to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 196

Speech
Implementing monetary policy with the balance sheet: keynote remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Keynote Remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Speech , Paper 259

Speech
The role of best practices in supporting market integrity and effectiveness: remarks at the 2016 Primary Dealers Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the 2016 Primary Dealers Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 217

Speech
Discussion of “Evaluating Monetary Policy Operational Frameworks” by Ulrich Bindseil: remarks at the 2016 Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming

Remarks at the 2016 Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Speech , Paper 216

Speech
Money markets and monetary policy normalization

Remarks at the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech , Paper 164

Report
Is there still an added-worker effect?

Using matched March Current Population Surveys, we examine labor market transitions of husbands and wives. We find that the ?added-worker effect??the greater propensity of nonparticipating wives to enter the labor force when their husbands exit employment?is still important among a subset of couples, but that the overall value of marriage as a risk-sharing arrangement has diminished because of the greater positive co-movement of employment within couples. While positive assortative matching on education did increase over time, this shift in the composition of couple types alone cannot account ...
Staff Reports , Paper 310

Speech
Gradual and predictable: reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: remarks at SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, New York City

Remarks at SUERF ? The European Money and Finance Forum, New York City.
Speech , Paper 257

Discussion Paper
How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet

The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased greatly between 2009 and 2014 owing to large-scale asset purchases. The balance sheet has stayed at a high level since then through the ongoing reinvestment of principal repayments on securities that the Fed holds. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, it is expected to do so by gradually reducing the pace of reinvestments, as outlined in the June 2017 addendum to the FOMC’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. How do asset purchases increase the size of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170710

Journal Article
Liquidity effects of the events of September 11, 2001

Banks rely heavily on incoming payments from other banks to fund their own payments. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, destroyed facilities in Lower Manhattan, leaving some banks unable to send payments through the Federal Reserve's Fedwire payments system. As a result, many banks received fewer payments than expected, causing unexpected shortfalls in banks' liquidity. These disruptions also made it harder for banks to redistribute balances across the banking system in a timely manner. In this article, the authors measure the payments responses of banks to the receipt of payments ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 8 , Issue Nov , Pages 59-79

Report
Fluctuations in confidence and asymmetric business cycles

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle fluctuations contain asymmetries. The asymmetries found in post-war U.S. data are inconsistent with the behavior of the U.S. economy in the Great Depression. In a model where business cycle asymmetries are produced by rational fluctuations in the confidence of investors, I examine whether this inconsistency can be explained by differences in government policy. It is found that the 'ineptness' of government intervention during the Great Depression in reducing the confidence of investors rather than the success of post-war ...
Staff Reports , Paper 66

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