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Discussion Paper
How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet
Leonard, Deborah; Martin, Antoine; Potter, Simon M. (2017-07-10)
The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased greatly between 2009 and 2014 owing to large-scale asset purchases. The balance sheet has stayed at a high level since then through the ongoing reinvestment of principal repayments on securities that the Fed holds. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, it is expected to do so by gradually reducing the pace of reinvestments, as outlined in the June 2017 addendum to the FOMC’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. How do asset purchases increase the size of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170710

Working Paper
Monetary policy implementation with an ample supply of reserves
Afonso, Gara; Kim, Kyungmin; Martin, Antoine; Nosal, Ed; Potter, Simon M.; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (2020-01-18)
Methods of monetary policy implementation continue to change. The level of reserve supply—scarce, abundant, or somewhere in between—has implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of an implementation regime. The money market events of September 2019 highlight the need for an analytical framework to better understand implementation regimes. We discuss major issues relevant to the choice of an implementation regime, using a parsimonious framework and drawing from the experience in the United States since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We find that the optimal level of reserve supply ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-02

Speech
Challenges posed by the evolution of the Treasury market
Potter, Simon M. (2015-04-13)
Remarks at the 2015 Primary Dealer Meeting, New York City.
Speech , Paper 162

Report
Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging
Potter, Simon M.; Koop, Gary (2003-03-01)
This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms that simulate from the space defined by all possible models. We explain how these simulation algorithms can also be used to select the model with the highest marginal likelihood (or highest value of an information criterion) in an efficient manner. We apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time ...
Staff Reports , Paper 163

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

Speech
Some observations and lessons from the crisis
Potter, Simon M. (2010)
Remarks at the Third Annual Connecticut Bank and Trust Company Economic Outlook Breakfast, Hartford, Connecticut.
Speech

Speech
Implementing monetary policy with the balance sheet: keynote remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Potter, Simon M. (2017-11-06)
Keynote Remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Speech , Paper 259

Speech
Money markets and monetary policy normalization
Potter, Simon M. (2015-04-15)
Remarks at the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech

Speech
Money markets at a crossroads: policy implementation at a time of structural change: remarks at the Master of Applied Economics' Distinguished Speaker Series, University of California, Los Angeles
Potter, Simon M. (2017-04-05)
Remarks at the Master of Applied Economics' Distinguished Speaker Series, University of California, Los Angeles.
Speech , Paper 240

Journal Article
Economic restructuring in New York State
Sela, Rebecca J.; Groshen, Erica L.; Potter, Simon M. (2004-06)
When economic activity slows down, labor markets may undergo extensive structural change-the permanent reallocation of workers across industries. Job losses can be heavy, and creating new jobs and retraining displaced workers to fill them can take time. A high degree of restructuring may help to explain why New York State's most recent downturn persisted for well over two years. Subseries: Second District Highlights.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 10 , Issue Jun

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