Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 68.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Potter, Simon M. 

Journal Article
Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations

Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households' decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households' inflation expectations, ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Aug/Sep

Report
Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find ...
Staff Reports , Paper 132

Speech
Improving survey measures of inflation expectations

Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York, New York City.>
Speech , Paper 49

Speech
The implementation of current asset purchases

Remarks at the Annual Meeting with Primary Dealers, New York City.
Speech , Paper 98

Speech
Keynote remarks for the Commemoration of the Centennial of the Federal Reserve’s U.S. Dollar Account Services to the Global Official Sector

Keynote remarks for the Commemoration of the Centennial of the Federal Reserve?s U.S. Dollar Account Services to the Global Official Sector, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 268

Speech
Is there room for more monetary cooperation?: panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France

Panel discussion remarks at the Global Financial Stability in a New Monetary Environment conference, Paris, France.
Speech , Paper 218

Discussion Paper
Okun’s Law and Long Expansions

Economic forecasters frequently use a simple rule of thumb called Okun's law to link their real GDP growth forecasts to their unemployment rate forecasts. While they recognize that temporary deviations from Okun's law may occur, forecasters often assume that sustained reductions in the unemployment rate require robust GDP growth. However, our analysis suggests that Okun's law has not been a consistently reliable tool for predicting the size of declines in the unemployment rate during the last three expansions—a finding that reflects the impact of changes in the labor market since the early ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120327

Discussion Paper
How the Fed Changes the Size of Its Balance Sheet

The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased greatly between 2009 and 2014 owing to large-scale asset purchases. The balance sheet has stayed at a high level since then through the ongoing reinvestment of principal repayments on securities that the Fed holds. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, it is expected to do so by gradually reducing the pace of reinvestments, as outlined in the June 2017 addendum to the FOMC’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. How do asset purchases increase the size of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170710

Report
Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences

This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not focus exclusively on point forecast performance. It also examines density forecasts, as well as methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.
Staff Reports , Paper 680

Speech
Implementing monetary policy post-crisis: What have we learned? What do we need to know? remarks at a workshop organized by Columbia University SIPA and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2016

Workshop organized by Columbia University School of International Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2016.
Speech , Paper 208

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E58 6 items

E42 5 items

E52 5 items

C11 2 items

C13 2 items

C53 2 items

show more (17)

FILTER BY Keywords

Monetary policy 8 items

balance sheet 8 items

the Desk 6 items

time series analysis 6 items

monetary policy implementation 6 items

Econometric models 5 items

show more (329)

PREVIOUS / NEXT