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Author:Porter, Richard D. 

Working Paper
P* revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity.

This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1998-26

Working Paper
Asset prices and the conduct of monetary policy : proceedings of the Monetary Affairs Workshop

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 125

Discussion Paper
Estimating the volume of counterfeit U.S. currency in circulation worldwide: data and extrapolation

The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Secret Service. This paper assembles data from Federal Reserve and U.S. Secret Service sources and presents a range of estimates for the number of counterfeits in circulation. In addition, the paper presents figures on counterfeit passing activity by denomination, location, and method of production. The paper has two main conclusions: first, the stock of ...
Policy Discussion Paper Series , Paper PDP-2010-02

Discussion Paper
The Anderson-Rasche report: a review of the review

Special Studies Papers , Paper 166

Discussion Paper
Estimating distributed lag relationships using near-minimax procedures

Special Studies Papers , Paper 187

Discussion Paper
Linear models and linear filters in the analysis of seasonal variation

Special Studies Papers , Paper 47

Discussion Paper
Empirical comparisons of credit and monetary aggregates using vector autoregression methods

Special Studies Papers , Paper 181

Journal Article
Clarifying Liability for Twenty-First-Century Payment Fraud

This article examines the governance structure of retail payments in the United States, provides an overview of payment fraud, and discusses in depth the liability frameworks for fraud involving specific payment methods. It also presents a series of recommendations that describe how the public sector might work together with the private sector to reduce fraud risks by clarifying liability for fraud.
Economic Perspectives , Issue Q IV

Conference Paper
Transforming payment choices by doubling fees on the Illinois Tollway

On January 1, 2005, Illinois doubled the highway toll for travelers paying with cash, but kept the price unchanged for those paying electronically. This paper combines a theoretical model of payment choice with empirical analysis based on this rare natural experiment of differential pricing depending on the method of payment: cash versus electronic payment. An actual response to a price change allows the authors to estimate the sensitivity of consumer payment demand to prices.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]


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