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Journal Article
Trade between the United States and Eastern Europe
Journal Article
What drives large current account deficits?
Journal Article
Import prices and the exchange rate
Working Paper
Pass-through estimates and the choice of an exchange rate index
We examine exchange rate pass-through into U.S. import prices in 29 manufacturing industries using eight exchange rate indexes. These indexes vary by the number currencies included; whether the weight on each currency is based on total trade with the United States or solely imports; and, whether the weights vary by industry. Our results indicate that pass-through is generally incomplete but varies across industries. Moreover, pass-through is sensitive to the exchange rate index. Using bootstrapped J tests we show that major currency indexes perform better than their broad currency ...
Working Paper
Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level
Changes in costs faced by firms have direct implications for their price-cost margins. Knowing how prices respond to such cost changes is crucial for understanding how individual markets function and, in turn, for understanding the macroeconomy. We analyze exchange rate pass-through into U.S. import prices for 30 industries to address two questions related to this issue. First, does the direction of a change in the exchange rate affect pass-through? Second, does the size of a change in the exchange rate matter for pass-through? We find that firms in over half the industries studied respond ...
Working Paper
The role of the euro as an international currency
The creation of the euro will link an economy that is nearly as large and as open as the United States. Does this imply that the euro will rival the role of the dollar as an international currency? This paper addresses this question through an examination of the determinants of the use of an international currency. It examines both the prospects of the euro becoming an international currency and the implications for the European Union and the United States.
Working Paper
The transition from a-pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded Social Security System: is there a role for social insurance?
This paper develops a model to examine the effects of introducing a fully-funded government sponsored pension plan into an overlapping generations model with an extant pay-as-you-go social security system. We examine whether individual and social welfare can be improved by phasing out the current pay-as-you-go system and replacing it with a fully-funded system in which pension benefits are at least partially annuitized. Furthermore, we consider the effects of means testing social security benefits and providing a income guarantee funded in a pay-as-you-go manner. We find that the presence of ...
Working Paper
Constructing and using national and regional TWEXs: the case for chaining
The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates spurred the development of trade-weighted exchange rates(TWEXs). These indexes measure changes in the average foreign exchange value of a currency over time. The construction of a TWEX index requires numerous decisions. Producers of TWEXs are revisiting many of their construction decisions because, with the advent of the single currency in Europe, all TWEXs will have to be modified. In addition, countries adopting the single currency may find it useful to develop their own TWEXs, similar to those that exist for regions within ...
Working Paper
The effects of aging and myopia on the pay-as-you-go social security systems of the G7
The Social Security systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when populations were young and the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this downward trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an overlapping generations model in which growth is endogenously fueled by individuals' investments in physical and human capital and by the government's investment in human capital via public education expenditures. We analyze individuals' behavior when ...