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Author:Pollard, Patricia S. 

Journal Article
Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?

The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a ...
Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jan , Pages 25-40

Journal Article
Reforming Social Security: a welfare analysis

Review , Issue Mar , Pages 19-30

Working Paper
Exchange rate pass-through in U. S. manufacturing: exchange rate index choice and asymmetry issues

This paper explores two issues that have received limited attention in the exchange rate pass-through literature. First, are the pass-through estimates sensitive to the choice of the exchange rate index? Second, are pass-through estimates asymmetric with respect to the sign of exchange rate changes? Using data for 87 industries, we find that the answer to both questions is yes. J-test results indicate that the "Major" exchange rate index produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System tends to fit the data better than two alternative indexes. With respect to asymmetry, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2000-022

Journal Article
Growth and the current account deficit

National Economic Trends , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Burger survey provides taste of international economics

An annual survey on the price of a hamburger in countries around the globe provides a surprisingly meaty lesson about relative currency valuations.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan. , Pages 12-13

Journal Article
State exports and the Asian crisis

The Asian crisis caused a decline in most states' exports of manufactured goods to East Asia during 1998, but the severity of the decline varied across states. In this article, Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard estimate the size of this export shock for all states. Primarily because western states tend to be more dependent on East Asian markets for export sales, they were hit the hardest by the sharp reduction in Asian demand for U.S.-produced manufactured goods. Of the states in which the decline in exports to East Asia lowered the growth of manufacturing output by more than one ...
Review , Volume 82 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-14

Journal Article
The crisis that wasn't: Asia and the Eighth District

The East Asian financial crisis sent economies world wide reeling. So how did the Eighth District remain relatively unscathed?
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 12-13

Working Paper
A simple model of international capital flows, exchange rate risk, and portfolio choice

This paper examines international capital flows in the context of a simple Diamond-Dybvig model in which there are neither moral hazard nor adverse selection problems, thus isolating exchange rate risk as the propagator of capital flows. The model shows that adverse changes in exchange rate expectations can result in "hot money" flows even when a bank's balance sheet is perfectly transparent and its assets have a positive net present value in local currency terms. The model also indicates that foreign deposit guarantees even in the absence of a change in the bank's portfolio can increase ...
Working Papers , Paper 2000-009

Journal Article
Import prices and the exchange rate

International Economic Trends , Issue Feb



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