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Author:Plante, Michael D. 

Working Paper
The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examines the effects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude oil, refined oil products, and a non-oil good. The model incorporates different types of crude oil that are imperfect substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data for the U.S. and the rest of the world (ROW). We investigate the implications of a significant increase in U.S. light crude oil production similar to the shale oil boom. Consistent with the data, our model predicts that light oil ...
Working Papers , Paper 1708

Journal Article
Commodity futures investing: method to the madness

Just as there are popular indexes that measure the value of groups of stocks, such as the Dow Jones industrial average, there are indexes that do the same for commodity futures.
Economic Letter , Volume 7

Working Paper
The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty

This paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession. Prior to that event the correlation was weak, even when conditioning on recessions. At the same time, many central banks reduced their policy rate to its zero lower bound (ZLB), which we contend contributed to the strong correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth. To test that theory, we use a model where the ZLB occasionally binds. The model roughly matches the correlation in the data?away from the ZLB the correlation is weak but strongly ...
Working Papers , Paper 1405

Journal Article
Plunging oil prices: a boost for the U.S. economy, a jolt for Texas

Economic activity in the U.S. overall will benefit from the oil price collapse. The decline will, however, negatively affect oil-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Renewable fuel standards hit the 'blend wall'

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandated that a minimum amount of biofuel be blended into transportation fuels. But nine years after the law was passed, the energy landscape has changed.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , Pages 1-4

The Production Process Drives Fluctuations in Output and Uncertainty

If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.
Dallas Fed Economics

Capacity Constraints Drive the OPEC+ Supply Gap

Assuming that the group increases production at the same pace it has in recent months, only a handful of countries in OPEC+ will have spare capacity left by the start of the summer, a number that will dwindle as year-end approaches.
Dallas Fed Economics

The Russian Oil Supply Shock of 2022

In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, early estimates suggested that perhaps 3 million barrels a day (mb/d) of petroleum production had been effectively removed from the global oil market, constituting one of the largest supply shortfalls since the 1970s.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business-cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986?2011 and utilize the estimated process in a nonlinear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead ...
Working Papers , Paper 1201

Solar Lights Up Outlook for Renewable Energy in Texas

Improving economics and government tax incentives have spurred investment in utility-scale solar facilities in Texas.
Dallas Fed Economics

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