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Author:Plante, Michael D. 

Oil Market’s Tightening in February Seemingly Defies Fundamentals

Surging oil prices in February have raised hopes that the worst may be over for oil markets, though recent evidence suggests that the recovery will not last.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials

We show that the oil market has become closer to "one great pool," in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these price differentials experienced a major structural break in or around 2008, after which there was a marked reduction in their means and volatilities. Differentials between residual fuel oil, a low-quality fuel, and higher-valued products, such as gasoline and diesel, experienced similar breaks during the same time period. A growing ability of the global refinery ...
Working Papers , Volume 42 , Issue 2

Journal Article
Commodity futures investing: method to the madness

Just as there are popular indexes that measure the value of groups of stocks, such as the Dow Jones industrial average, there are indexes that do the same for commodity futures.
Economic Letter , Volume 7

How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Getting prices right: addressing Mexico’s history of fuel subsidies

In recent years, Mexico?s retail gasoline and diesel prices lagged behind skyrocketing crude oil prices, creating a de facto government subsidy.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q3 , Pages 10-13

Working Paper
The long–run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies

Many developing and emerging market countries have subsidies on fuel products. Using a small open economy model with a non-traded sector I show how these subsidies impact the steady state levels of macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption, labor supply, and aggregate welfare. These subsidies can lead to crowding out of non-oil consumption, inefficient inter-sectoral allocations of labor, and other distortions in macroeconomic variables. Across steady states aggregate welfare is reduced by these subsidies. This result holds for a country with no oil production and for a net exporter of ...
Working Papers , Paper 1303

Journal Article
Lower oil prices weaken prospects for job, economic growth in Texas

Although the relative importance of oil and gas to the Texas economy has grown in recent years, lower energy prices are unlikely to halt net job growth statewide.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q1 , Pages 10-13

Working Paper
How should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil? considering supply and demand shocks

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model, where the relative price of oil is affected by exogenous supply shocks and a productivity-driven demand shock. When wages are flexible, stabilizing core inflation is optimal and the nominal rate rises (falls) in response to a demand (supply) shock. When both prices and wages are sticky, core inflation falls (rises) in response to the demand (supply) shock. Stabilizing CPI inflation generates small welfare losses only if the demand shock is the main driver of oil prices. Based on a VAR estimated using post-1986 data for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1202

Working Paper
Time-varying oil price volatility and macroeconomic aggregates

We illustrate the theoretical relation among output, consumption, investment, and oil price volatility in a real business-cycle model. The model incorporates demand for oil by a firm, as an intermediate input, and by a household, used in conjunction with a durable good. We estimate a stochastic volatility process for the real price of oil over the period 1986?2011 and utilize the estimated process in a nonlinear approximation of the model. For realistic calibrations, an increase in oil price volatility produces a temporary decrease in durable spending, while precautionary savings motives lead ...
Working Papers , Paper 1201

Journal Article
Fed’s Effective Lower Bound Constraint on Monetary Policy Created Uncertainty

Uncertainty about the economy increased when the Fed reduced the federal funds rate to its effective lower bound because the constraint restricted the Fed?s ability to stabilize the economy. As a result, a much stronger negative relationship between uncertainty and economic activity emerged during and shortly after the Great Recession.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 11 , Pages 1-4

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