Search Results
Briefing
The Pandemic’s Effects on Children’s Education
School closures and switches to hybrid/virtual learning due to the pandemic adversely affected student achievement through several channels, including a decline in skill accumulation and a disruption of peer effects and peer-group formation.Preliminary evidence suggests that losses took place early in the pandemic and that there has not been an apparent recovery. Also, the impact on students has been far from uniform, as economic losses tend to fall more deeply on younger students and students from disadvantaged backgrounds.Simply returning schools and instructional practices to where they ...
Journal Article
Monitoring Economic Activity in Real Time Using Diffusion Indices: Evidence from the Fifth District
We provide an analysis that parses out the conditions under which diffusion indices based on disaggregated information are informative about overall economic activity. Building on work by Pinto, Sarte, and Sharp (2015), we highlight the fact that diffusion indices, appropriately scaled, capture contributions of changes in the extensive margin -- e.g. how many sectors are growing or declining rather than by how much individual sectors are growing or declining -- to aggregate growth. In the Fifth Federal Reserve District, for example, this margin captures the bulk of variations in aggregate ...
Briefing
Responding to Urban Decline
In recent decades, a number of once-prominent U.S. cities have experienced economic hardship and significant population loss. Policymakers in those cities want to jump-start growth and improve prospects for the people who live there. But where should they begin? This Economic Brief surveys economic studies on a variety of urban policy interventions and provides lessons for policymakers.
Briefing
Commuting Patterns and Economic Connectivity in the Fifth District
One way of measuring economic connectivity across locations is by examining the commuting behavior of residents. This article explores how connected counties in the Fifth District are by focusing on commuting.
Journal Article
Sentiment Analysis of the Fifth District Manufacturing and Service Surveys
This article uses basic text analytic techniques to examine the sentiment embodied in two surveys conducted by the Richmond Fed: the Manufacturing and Service Sector Surveys. Specifically, the article develops several sentiment indicators based on the comments provided by survey participants, contrasts the sentiment measures against responses to other survey questions, and analyzes the monthly evolution of the sentiment indicators during the period 2002-18. Two main conclusions emerge from the analysis. First, the indicators reflect reasonably well changes in economic sentiment along time. ...
Journal Article
The Rise and Decline of Petersburg, Va.
Early Virginians looked at Petersburg, with its location on the Appomattox River, as a town of economic vibrancy and promise. Incorporated in 1748 by the Virginia General Assembly, the town fulfilled that early promise and grew to become the commonwealth's third independent city in 1850. But turmoil as well as prosperity for Petersburg were ahead. {{p}} Throughout its 270 years, three factors have dominated Petersburg's economic history: tobacco, trade, and transportation. The city's early economic prominence was due to its tobacco plantations and warehouses as well as various mills powered ...
Journal Article
Land-Use Regulations: A View from the Fifth District
Land and housing can be costly in a city or region for a number of possible reasons. Places with recreational or cultural attractions or other amenities draw population so the demand for housing and, consequently, land is high in those areas. Prices could also be high at some locations if the supply of land is constrained by the geography. In some areas, however, the price of land is high as the result of heavy land-use regulations (LURs), which restrict the availability of houses.
Working Paper
Taxation, Compliance, and Clandestine Activities
We investigate the delicate balance policymakers have to strike between raising tax revenues for public good provision and controlling the distortionary effects of taxes on (i) tax evasion, (ii) total work hours, and (iii) the allocation of work hours to illegal activities. These distortions lower the constrained optimal tax rate and result in the under-provision of the public good. This under-provision problem is mitigated when surplus from the audit agency is seamlessly transferred to the taxing authorities. Extensions of the basic model incorporate agent heterogeneity and a more general ...
Working Paper
Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever
We study diffusion indices constructed from qualitative surveys to provide real-time assessments of various aspects of economic activity. In particular, we highlight the role of diffusion indices as estimates of change in a quasi extensive margin, and characterize their distribution, focusing on the uncertainty implied by both sampling and the polarization of participants' responses. Because qualitative tendency surveys generally cover multiple questions around a topic, a key aspect of this uncertainty concerns the coincidence of responses, or the degree to which polarization comoves, across ...
Briefing
Are Place-Based Policies a Boon for Everyone?
Despite the widespread implementation of locally targeted "place-based" interventions, their optimal design and effectiveness in addressing regional economic disparities remains open. Proponents argue that they can leverage powerful agglomeration economies and benefit underserved areas. Critics highlight potential pitfalls like inefficiency, gentrification and negative spillovers. Evaluating their effectiveness is challenging due to policy heterogeneity and data limitations, as existing evidence presents a mixed picture: Some programs seem to contribute to job creation and poverty reduction, ...