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Author:Phillips, Keith R. 

Journal Article
Snapshot: Texas Employment Estimate Debuts

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ new Texas Weekly Employment Estimate (TWEE) is a timely tool to monitor evolving economic conditions while awaiting release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ establishment survey of employment.
Southwest Economy , Issue Third Quarter

Working Paper
Spurious seasonal patterns and excess smoothness in the BLS local area unemployment

State level unemployment statistics are some of the most important and widely used data sources for local analysts and public officials to gauge the health of their state?s economy. We find statistically significant seasonal patterns in the state level seasonally adjusted Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We find that the pro-rata factors used in the benchmarking process can invoke spurious seasonal patterns in this data. We also find that the Henderson 13 filter used by the BLS to smooth the seasonally adjusted data may reduce ...
Working Papers , Paper 1305

Working Paper
A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle

The timing, length and severity of economic recessions and expansions in a state are important to businesses seeking to set up operations or expand in those areas. Given a limited amount of data at the state level and their sometimes inconsistent movements, it is not straight forward to define a state business cycle. In this article I attempt to measure the Texas business cycle using a technique developed by Stock and Watson (1989,1991) that statistically estimates the underlying comovement in broad indicators of the state?s economy. The new Texas Coincident Index (TCI) is constructed with ...
Working Papers , Paper 0401

Journal Article
Banking industry evolution along the Texas-Mexico border

Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 11-13

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
COVID-19 Slammed into Texas, Leaving Long-Lasting Impacts

The economic road from the COVID-19 recession in Texas will likely feature a steeper, more rapid climb than the usual gradual rise associated with most recoveries. Some structural changes that the pandemic wrought will take longer to resolve, including those that will make work from home a longer-term occupational reality for some.
Southwest Economy , Issue First Quarter

Journal Article
Austin's high-tech industry: played out or just beginning?


Journal Article
Texas facing economic headwinds in 2015

Texas job growth is likely to slow in 2015 from last year?s rapid pace as the state economy absorbs the impact of collapsing energy prices that have curtailed oil patch activity.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q1 , Pages 3-7

Journal Article
Recession arrives in Texas: a rougher ride in 2009

Through much of 2008, the Texas economy continued to expand while the nation fell into recession. Growth in the energy and high-tech sectors and rising home prices were key factors in making Texas' economy one of the nation's strongest. ; In the last half of the year, however, the state's economic conditions deteriorated rapidly. The weakening was primarily due to the deepening global financial crisis and sharp declines in energy prices, high-tech activity and exports. ; Indicators suggest Texas trailed the official December 2007 start of the U.S. recession by at least six months. So far, the ...
Southwest Economy , Issue Q1 , Pages 3-6

Journal Article
The effect of the growing service sector on wages in Texas

In Texas during the 1980s, service-sector employment rose, goods-sector employment declined, and the average real wage increased only slightly. Because service-sector jobs pay lower average wages than goods-sector jobs, analysts have suggested that the growing proportion of jobs in the service sector was an important factor suppressing overall wage gains in the state. ; Keith R. Phillips finds that the increasing share of service-sector jobs only slightly dampened wage growth in Texas during the 1980s. Slow wage growth primarily resulted from weak wage expansion in both the goods and service ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review , Issue Nov , Pages 15-28




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