Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 10.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Perli, Roberto 

Speech
Transcript of Roberto Perli on the Macro Musings Podcast

Slowing the pace of its balance sheet runoff is an important step the Fed can take to more effectively manage risks while allowing the banking system to adapt to lower levels of reserves.
Speech

Working Paper
Financial market perceptions of recession risk

Over the Great Moderation period in the United States, we find that corporate credit spreads embed crucial information about the one-year-ahead probability of recession, as evidenced by both in- and out-of-sample fit. Furthermore, the incidence of ?false positive? predictions of recession is dramatically reduced by utilizing a bivariate model that includes a measure of credit spreads along with the slope of the yield curve; indeed, these bivariate models provide much better forecasting performance than any combination of univariate models. We also find that optimal (Bayesian) model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-57

Working Paper
Does mortgage hedging amplify movements in long-term interest rates?

The growth of the mortgage market in recent years has raised the question of what effects, if any, the hedging of mortgage portfolios has on the behavior of long-term interest rates. This paper finds that the volatility of the ten-year swap rate implied by swaptions increases when the prepayment risk of outstanding mortgages increases--most likely because investors expect the hedging of prepayment risk to amplify future interest rate movements. These amplification effects can be considerable in magnitude, but they are generally expected to persist only for several months.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-49

Working Paper
Economic and regulatory capital allocation for revolving retail exposures

The latest revision of the Internal Ratings Based approach of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's New Capital Accord Proposal for retail portfolios contains a significant innovation relative to previous versions: the recognition that, for revolving credits, future margin income will be available to cover losses before a bank's capital is threatened. We assemble a mini-portfolio of revolving exposures and we compare the capital charges generated by the latest Basel's formula with the capital charges generated by two possible earnings-at-risk internal capital allocation models. We find ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2003-39

Speech
Implementing Monetary Policy: What’s Working and Where We’re Headed

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting.
Speech

Journal Article
Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2003

Amid a strengthening economic expansion, U.S. commercial banks remained highly profitable in 2003. Return on assets reached a record level for the second year in a row, and return on equity was near the top of its recent range. Banks' profits were bolstered by decreased loan-loss provisions as a rising economy and considerable debt refinancing at very low interest rates led to lower delinquency rates on business and household loans. Fees associated with record mortgage refinancing activity and robust corporate bond issuance boosted non-interest income. Increases in non-interest expense were ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 90 , Issue Spring

Journal Article
Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2002

Despite the lackluster performance of the U.S. economy, the profitability of the U.S. commercial banking industry was again high in 2002, and the return on bank assets reached its highest level in more than three decades. Profitability was spurred in considerable part by declines in market interest rates to extraordinarily low levels. Short-term interest rates were low throughout 2002 as a result of the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing the year before in response to economic weakness, and longer-term rates fell to multidecade lows by year-end. Nevertheless, the yield curve steepened on ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 89 , Issue Jun , Pages 243-270

Speech
Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead

Remarks at 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech

Speech
Disentangling Messages from the Treasury Market

Remarks at 2023 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech

Working Paper
Regime-switching in expectations over the business cycle

In this paper the authors argue that a plausible reason why output and other major U.S. macroeconomic time series seem to follow a Markov switching process might be strictly related to expectations. The authors show that a time series of expectations of future output from the Survey of Professional Forecasters is the only one among the many they analyze that has switching properties compatible with those of output. Starting from this empirical evidence the authors present a business cycle model with shocks to expectations (sunspots) that produces time series with the same properties as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-17

PREVIOUS / NEXT