The delinquency of subprime mortgages
This paper focuses on understanding the determinants of the performance of subprime mortgages. A growing body of literature recognizes the substantial lag between the time that a borrower stops making payments on a mortgage and the termination of the loan. The duration of this lag and the method by which the delinquency is ultimately terminated play a critical role in the costs borne by both borrower and lender. Using nested and multinomial logit, we find that delinquency and default are sensitive to current economic conditions and housing markets. Credit scores and loan characteristics also ...
The duration of foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market: a competing risks model with mixing
This paper examines what happens to mortgages in the subprime mortgage market once foreclosure proceeding are initiated. A multinominial logit model that allows for the interdependence of the possible outcomes or risks (cure, partial cure, paid off, and real estate owned) through the correlation of associated unobserved heterogeneities is estimated. The results show that the duration of foreclosures is impacted by many factors including contemporaneous housing market conditions, the prior performance of the loan (prior delinquency), and the state-level legal environment.
The evolution of the subprime mortgage market
This paper describes subprime lending in the mortgage market and how it has evolved through time. Subprime lending has introduced a substantial amount of risk-based pricing into the mortgage market by creating a myriad of prices and product choices largely determined by borrower credit history (mortgage and rental payments, foreclosures and bankruptcies, and overall credit scores) and down payment requirements. Although subprime lending still differs from prime lending in many ways, much of the growth (at least in the securitized portion of the market) has come in the least-risky (A-) segment ...
The termination of subprime hybrid and fixed rate mortgages
Adjustable rate and hybrid loans have been a large and important component of subprime lending in the mortgage market. While maintaining the familiar 30-year term the typical adjustable rate loan in subprime is designed as a hybrid of fixed and adjustable characteristics. In its most prevalent form, the first two years are typically fixed and the remaining 28 years adjustable. Perhaps not surprisingly, using a competing risks proportional hazard framework that also accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, hybrid loans are sensitive to rising interest rates and tend to temporarily terminate at ...
Subprime refinancing: equity extraction and mortgage termination
This paper examines the choice of borrowers to extract wealth from housing in the high-cost (subprime) segment of the mortgage market while refinancing and assesses the prepayment and default performance of these cash-out refinance loans relative to the rate refinance loans. Consistent with survey evidence the propensity to extract equity while refinancing is sensitive to interest rates on other forms of consumer debt. After the loan is originated, our results indicate that cash-out refinances perform differently from non cash-out refinances. For example, cash-outs are less likely to default ...
Rock solid in Little Rock?
The impact of local predatory lending laws on the flow of subprime credit
Local authorities in North Carolina, and subsequently in at least 23 other states, have enacted laws intending to reduce predatory and abusive lending. While there is substantial variation in the laws, they typically extend the coverage of the Federal Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) by including home purchase and open end mortgage credit, by lowering annual percentage rate (APR) and fees and points triggers, and by prohibiting or restricting the use of balloon payments and prepayment penalties. Empirical results show that the typical local predatory lending law tends to ...
Loan servicer heterogeneity and the termination of subprime mortgages
After a mortgage is originated the borrower promises to make scheduled payments to repay the loan. These payments are sent to the loan servicer, who may be the original lender or some other firm. This firm collects the promised payments and distributes the cash flow (payments) to the appropriate investor/lender. A large data set (loan-level) of securitized subprime mortgages is used to examine if individual servicers are associated with systematic differences in mortgage performance (termination). While accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in a competing risk (default and prepay) ...
The value of foreclosed property
This paper examines the expected price appreciation of distressed property and compares it to the prevailing metropolitan area appreciation rate. The results show that the simple fact that the property is foreclosed indicates that it will be sold at a substantial discount (appreciate less than expected). The magnitude of the discount is sensitive to loan characteristics, legal restrictions, housing market conditions, and the bargaining position of the selling institution.