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Journal Article
Currency boards: monetary magic?
Journal Article
There are two sides to every (employment redistribution) story!
Journal Article
Capital deepening
Working Paper
Smoke-free law did affect revenue from gaming in Delaware
A paper recently published in the journal Tobacco Control purports to show that the implementation of a smoking prohibition in Delaware had no statistically significant effect on the revenues of three gaming facilities in that state. After correcting for evident errors in that analysis, I find that the smoke-free law did affect revenues from gaming in Delaware. Total gaming revenues are estimated to have declined by at least $6 million per month after the implementation of Delaware*s Clean Indoor Air Law. This represents a loss of over 12% relative to average monthly revenues in the year ...
Working Paper
No smoking at the slot machines: the effect of a smoke-free law on Delaware gaming revenues
As communities around the nation consider laws restricting smoking in public places, a key political and economic issue that often arises is the effect that such laws have on the sales and profits of particular sectors. The gaming industry has been active in opposition to such ordinances, citing large prospective losses. This article analyzes the revenues of three gaming facilities in Delaware following the implementation of a smoke-free law in December 2002. Revenues are found to have declined significantly at each of the three facilities, with relative magnitudes of losses corresponding to ...
Working Paper
Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy
This paper shows that the optimal monetary policies recommended by New Keynesian models still imply a large amount of inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority adopts the optimal policy. When the monetary policy rules are modified to include some weight on a price path, the economy achieves equilibria with substantially lower long-run inflation risk. With either sticky prices or sticky wages, a price path target reduces the variance of inflation by an order of magnitude more than it increases the variability of ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy and natural disasters in a DSGE model: how should the Fed have responded to Hurricane Katrina?
In the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, speculation arose that the Federal Reserve might respond by easing monetary policy. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the appropriate monetary policy response to a natural disaster. We show that the standard Taylor (1993) rule response in models with and without nominal rigidities is to increase the nominal interest rate. That finding is unchanged when we consider the optimal policy response to a disaster. A nominal interest rate increase following a disaster mitigates both temporary inflation ...
Working Paper
Casino revenue and the Illinois smoking ban
Smoking was banned in all Illinois casinos in January 2008. We explore the effects that the smoking ban has had on Illinois casino revenue and attendance. Our empirical methodology extends and enhances that of previous literature in that we observe a natural experiment in comparing the performance of Illinois casinos with out-of-state casinos (no smoking ban) that share a market with Illinois casinos. Estimates suggest that revenue and admissions at Illinois casinos declined by more than 20 percent ($400 million) and 12 percent, respectively. Calculations reveal that casino tax revenue to ...
Working Paper
Taylor-type rules and permanent shifts in productivity growth
This paper examines the impact of a permanent shock to the productivity growth rate in a New Keynesian model when the central bank does not immediately adjust its policy rule to that shock. Our results show that inflation and productivity growth are negatively correlated at business cycle frequencies when the central bank follows a Taylor-type policy rule that targets the output gap. We then demonstrate that inflation is more stable after a permanent productivity shock when monetary policy targets the output growth rate (not the output gap) or the price-level path (not the inflation rate). As ...
Working Paper
The monetary instrument matters
This paper revisits the issue of money growth versus the interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework, we examine the effects of alternative monetary policy rules on inflation persistence, the information content of monetary data, and real variables. We show that inflation persistence and the variability of inflation relative to money growth depends on whether the central bank follows a money growth rule or an interest rate rule. With a money growth rule, inflation is not persistent and the price level is much more volatile than ...