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Journal Article
Putting off retirement: the rise of the 401(k)
Owyang, Michael T.; Chiodo, Abbigail J. (2002-03)
National Economic Trends , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2015)
Assessing inflation?s likely path matters to policymakers and those in financial markets.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25

Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah; Soques, Daniel (2022-11-23)
The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help-wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four groupings ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-037

Working Paper
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics
Jackson, Laura E.; Otrok, Christopher; Owyang, Michael T. (2022-06-06)
We propose a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes. Similar to tax shocks found in the existing empirical literature, the level shock is contractionary. The tax progressivity shock is expansionary: Increasing tax progressivity raises (lowers) disposable income at the bottom (top) end of the income distribution by shifting the tax burden from the bottom to the top. If agents' marginal propensity to consume falls with income, the rise in consumption at the bottom more than compensates for the decline in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-034

Journal Article
Your current job probably won't be your last
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2004-02)
National Economic Trends , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2008-01)
New studies have looked at the impact of easier divorce on everything from women working outside the home to children's education to spousal violence.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 12-16

Working Paper
Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements
Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel; Guisinger, Amy Y. (2021-08-04)
While aggregate shocks account for most business cycle fluctuations, sectoral shocks have become relatively more important since the 1980s. Previous studies show that sectoral shocks propagate through industry supply chains. Typically, sectors are defined by similarities in function and/or market. While some industries have supply chains within their own sector (vertical), others have supply chains across a number of sectors (horizontal). Similarity in these supply chain characteristics appear to be a determining factor in how industries comove. Using industrial production data of 82 ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-052

Working Paper
Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models
Francis, Neville; Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel (2023-08-29)
We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock. Our focus is on nonlinear vector autoregressions with a variety of specifications for the transition function used throughout the literature. Using Monte Carlo simulations with different misspecifications, we identify the conditions under which impulse response function estimates exhibit significant bias. Furthermore, we extend the concept of model-average impulse responses to this nonlinear context and demonstrate their robustness to model misspecification. Applying these ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-021

Working Paper
Business Cycles Across Space and Time
Owyang, Michael T.; Francis, Neville; Soques, Daniel (2021-05-05)
We study the comovement of international business cycles in a time series clustering model with regime-switching. We extend the framework of Hamilton and Owyang (2012) to include time-varying transition probabilities to determine what drives similarities in business cycle turning points. We find four groups, or "clusters", of countries which experience idiosyncratic recessions relative to the global cycle. Additionally, we find the primary indicators of international recessions to be fluctuations in equity markets and geopolitical uncertainty. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, we find ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-010

Journal Article
Social changes lead married women into labor force
Owyang, Michael T.; Engemann, Kristie M. (2006-04)
The ranks of women in the workforce jumped by more than 24 percentage points between 1955 and 1999. Credit labor-saving devices at home (such as the dishwasher), the birth-control pill and the preference by some men to marry a woman who works outside the home.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 10-11

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