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Author:Orrenius, Pia M. 

Working Paper
Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios

The U.S. economy has long relied on immigrant workers, many of them unauthorized, yet estimates of the inflow of unauthorized workers and the determinants of that inflow are hard to come by. This paper provides estimates of the number of newly arriving unauthorized workers from Mexico, the principal source of unauthorized immigrants to the United States, and examines how the inflow is related to U.S. and Mexico economic conditions. Our estimates suggest that annual inflows of unauthorized workers averaged about 170,000 during 1996-2014 but were much higher before the economic downturn that ...
Working Papers , Paper 1701

Working Paper
New Findings on the Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the United States

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2016) report on the economic and fiscal effects of immigration included the first set of comprehensive fiscal impacts published in twenty years. The estimates highlight the pivotal role of the public goods assumption. If immigrants are assigned the average cost of public goods, such as national defense and interest on the debt, then immigration?s fiscal impact is negative in both the short and long run. If, instead, immigrants are assigned the marginal cost of public goods, then the long-run fiscal impact is positive and the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1704

Working Paper
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data

Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term vs. long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure ...
Working Papers , Paper 1409

Working Paper
Self-selection among undocumented immigrants from Mexico

This paper examines the effect of changes in migration determinants on the skill level of undocumented immigrants from Mexico. The authors focus on the effect of changes in economic conditions, migrant networks, and border enforcement on the educational attainment of Mexican-born men who cross the border illegally. Although previous research indicates that illegal aliens from Mexico tend to be unskilled relative to U.S. natives and that economic conditions, networks, and border enforcement affect the size of illegal immigrant flows across the border, the interaction of these variables has not ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2001-1

Working Paper
The impact of temporary protected status on immigrants’ labor market outcomes

The United States currently provides Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to more than 300,000 immigrants from selected countries. TPS is typically granted if dangerous conditions prevail in the home country due to armed conflict or a natural disaster. Individuals with TPS cannot be deported and are allowed to stay and work in the United States temporarily. Despite the increased use of TPS in recent years, little is known about how TPS affects labor market outcomes for beneficiaries, most of whom are unauthorized prior to receiving TPS. This study examines how migrants from El Salvador who are ...
Working Papers , Paper 1415

Working Paper
A role for government policy and sunspots in explaining endogenous fluctuations in illegal immigration

Working Papers , Paper 0305

Working Paper
Coyote crossings: the role of smugglers in illegal immigration and border enforcement

Illegal immigration and border enforcement in the United States have increased concomitantly for over thirty years. One interpretation is that U.S. border policies have been ineffective. We offer an alternative view, extending the current immigration-enforcement literature by incorporating both the practice of people smuggling and a role for non-wage income into a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model. We state conditions under which two steady state equilibria exist: one with a low level of capital, but relatively little migration. We then analyze two shocks: a positive technology ...
Working Papers , Paper 0201

Journal Article
New Technology Boosts Texas Firms' Output, Alters Worker Mix

A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey of manufacturing and services firms in Texas found that as companies adopt new technologies, the number of workers is little changed though the employees? skill levels shift. While some manufacturers see tighter margins as a result of technology and globalization, service sector firms may realize increased pricing power.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q3 , Pages 3-6

Working Paper
Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations

Immigrants? descendants typically assimilate toward mainstream social and economic outcomes across generations. Hispanics in the United States are a possible exception to this pattern. Although there is a growing literature on intergenerational progress, or lack thereof, in education and earnings among Hispanics, there is little research on employment differences across immigrant generations. Using data from 1996 to 2017, this study reveals considerable differences in Hispanics? employment rates across immigrant generations. Hispanic immigrant men tend to have higher employment rates than ...
Working Papers , Paper 1809

Journal Article
Growth on the border or bordering on growth ?

Southwest Economy , Issue May , Pages 1 - 8

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