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Author:Nie, Jun 

Journal Article
What Could Resurging U.S. Energy Production Mean for the U.S. Trade Deficit?

Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
U.S.exports and foreign economic growth : which regions matter most?

U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing

In this paper we examine how model uncertainty due to the preference for robustness (RB) affects optimal taxation and debt structure in the Barro tax-smoothing model (1979). We first study how the government spending shocks are absorbed in the short run by varying taxes or through debt under RB. Furthermore, we show that introducing RB can improve the model?s predictions by generating (i) the observed relative volatility of the changes in tax rates to government spending and (ii) the observed comovement between government deficits and spending, and (iii) more consistent behavior of government ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 12-01

Journal Article
Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts

The development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has brought significant structural change to the energy sector, increasing energy production and decreasing net energy imports. Future changes in energy policy or technology could have even larger effects on energy exports and thus overall exports. As a result, distinguishing energy from non-energy components of trade becomes important for forecasts in both the near and longer term. Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie introduce models separating energy from the non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production ...
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 29-51

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic

The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increases the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about its substantial impact on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of CARES UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment, but they also reduce infection and save lives. Shutdown policies and infection risk further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-13a

Journal Article
Why Is Wage Growth So Low?

Real wage growth has been low in recent years despite continued improvement in the labor market. I examine the interaction between productivity growth and unemployment and show that low productivity growth largely accounts for the current low wage growth. If productivity growth were to pick up, the current low unemployment rate would likely strengthen the positive relationship between productivity growth and wage growth.
Macro Bulletin , Issue December 21, 2018 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?

During the pandemic, the share of retirees in the U.S. population rose much faster than its normal pace. Typically, an increase in this share is driven by more people transitioning from employment to retirement. However, we show that the recent increase was instead driven by fewer people transitioning from retirement back into employment, likely due to pandemic-related health risks. More retirees may rejoin the workforce as these health risks fade, but the retirement share is unlikely to return to a normal level for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 11, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Economic growth in foreign regions and U.S. export growth

U.S. export growth depends crucially on foreign demand. Lower foreign economic growth is associated with lower U.S. export growth. And recently, some parts of the world, particularly Asia and Europe, have shown signs of slowing growth. ; Disaggregating historical data by region, authors Nie and Taylor measure the changes in U.S. export growth associated with changes in different regions' economic growth. They find the change in U.S. export growth associated with change in a given foreign region's growth depends both on the size of the region's economy and on the share of U.S. exports destined ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 31-63

Journal Article
Evaluating a year of oil price volatility

Troy Davig, Nida ak?r Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Decisions

This paper constructs a recursive utility version of a canonical Merton (1971) model with uninsurable labor income and unknown income growth to study how the interaction between two types of uncertainty due to ignorance affects strategic consumption-portfolio rules and precautionary savings. Specifically, after solving the model explicitly, we theoretically and quantitatively explore (i) how these ignorance-induced uncertainties interact with intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and the correlation between the equity return and labor income, and (ii) how they jointly affect strategic ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-13

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