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Author:Nie, Jun 

Journal Article
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?

During the pandemic, the share of retirees in the U.S. population rose much faster than its normal pace. Typically, an increase in this share is driven by more people transitioning from employment to retirement. However, we show that the recent increase was instead driven by fewer people transitioning from retirement back into employment, likely due to pandemic-related health risks. More retirees may rejoin the workforce as these health risks fade, but the retirement share is unlikely to return to a normal level for some time.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 11, 2021 , Pages 4

Journal Article
The effect of the U.S. energy boom on the trade deficit

Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data

To examine whether including economic data on other countries could improve the forecast of U.S. GDP growth, we construct a large data set of 77 countries representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Our benchmark model is a dynamic factor model using U.S. data only, which we extend to include data from other countries. We show that using cross-country data produces more accurate forecasts during the global financial crisis period. Based on the latest vintage data on August 6, 2020, the benchmark model forecasts U.S. real GDP growth in 2020:Q3 to be −6.9 percent (year-over-year rate) or 14.9 ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-09

Journal Article
Spending Patterns and Cost of Living for Younger versus Older Households

Older households have faced slightly higher inflation rates than younger households over the past 40 years, though this gap is narrowing.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 5-21

Working Paper
Wealth distribution with state-dependent risk aversion

Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 13-9

Working Paper
Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness

We propose a new channel to explain why developing countries may fail to benefit from financial globalization, based on labor market institutions. In our model, financial openness in a developing country with a rigid labor market leads to capital outflow, and both employment and output fall. In contrast, financial openness in a developing country with a flexible labor market benefits the country. Our model suggests that enhancing labor market flexibility is a complementary reform for developing countries opening capital accounts.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-11

Journal Article
U.S.exports and foreign economic growth : which regions matter most?

U.S. export growth tends to vary with changes in different foreign regions' economic growth rates. This article estimates how much change in U.S. export growth may be associated with a rise or fall in a given region's GDP growth.
Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion

We propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty due to ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain four facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously: (i) the high volatility of production relative to sales, (ii) the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, (iii) the positive correlation between sales and inventories, and (iv) the negative correlation between the inventory-to-sales ratio and sales. We find that the stock-out avoidance motive (Kahn 1987) ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-05

Working Paper
Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness

We propose a new channel to explain why developing countries may fail to benefit from financial globalization, based on labor market institutions. In our model, financial openness in a developing country with a rigid labor market leads to capital outflow, and both employment and output fall. In contrast, financial openness in a developing country with a flexible labor market benefits the country. Our model suggests that enhancing labor market flexibility is a complementary reform for developing countries opening capital accounts.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-11

Journal Article
How Did the 2018–19 U.S. Tariff Hikes Influence Household Spending?

Jun Nie, Alice von Ende-Becker, and Shu-Kuei X. Yang construct a tariff intensity measure to assess the uneven effects of the 2018–19 tariff increases across different types of households. They find that low-income households were more exposed to tariff increases than high-income households; younger households were more exposed than older households; Black households were more exposed than white or Asian households; and Hispanic households were more exposed than non-Hispanic households. In addition, they find that the tariff increases led to only a small shift in household spending from ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no.4 , Pages 5-20

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