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Journal Article
Evaluating a year of oil price volatility
Troy Davig, Nida ak?r Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.
Working Paper
Sticky information diffusion and the inertial behavior of durable consumption
A leading theory of consumption behavior is that consumers choose their consumption based only on their expected total lifetime income. This theory is called the permanent income hypothesis. According to this theory, consumers should adjust their consumption if they experience a change that affects their expected lifetime income, such as through an unexpected change in employment that affects their expected earnings going forward. One challenge for this theory is that the empirical evidence on consumer spending decisions for durable and nondurable goods does not match the implications of this ...
Working Paper
Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion
We propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty due to ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain four facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously: (i) the high volatility of production relative to sales, (ii) the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, (iii) the positive correlation between sales and inventories, and (iv) the negative correlation between the inventory-to-sales ratio and sales. We find that the stock-out avoidance motive (Kahn 1987) ...
Working Paper
Labor Market Institutions and the Effects of Financial Openness
We propose a new channel to explain why developing countries may fail to benefit from financial globalization, based on labor market institutions. In our model, financial openness in a developing country with a rigid labor market leads to capital outflow, and both employment and output fall. In contrast, financial openness in a developing country with a flexible labor market benefits the country. Our model suggests that enhancing labor market flexibility is a complementary reform for developing countries opening capital accounts.
Working Paper
Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations
In this paper we examine the effects of two types of information imperfections, robustness (RB) and nite information-processing capacity (called rational inattention or RI), on international consumption correlations in an otherwise standard small open economy model. We show that in the presence of capital mobility in nancial markets, RB lowers the international consumption correlations by generating heterogeneous responses of consumption to income shocks across countries facing different macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the calibrated RB model cannot explain the observed consumption ...
Journal Article
Gauging the Strength of Chinese GDP Growth
Jun Nie constructs an alternative measure to evaluate the strength of Chinese GDP growth and identifies potential risks to China?s growth in the near term.
Journal Article
Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts
The development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has brought significant structural change to the energy sector, increasing energy production and decreasing net energy imports. Future changes in energy policy or technology could have even larger effects on energy exports and thus overall exports. As a result, distinguishing energy from non-energy components of trade becomes important for forecasts in both the near and longer term. Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie introduce models separating energy from the non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production ...
Journal Article
China’s slowing housing market and GDP growth.
Journal Article
Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output
The Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent oil sanctions from European countries have substantially disrupted the supply of Russian oil and gas. We estimate the effects of these disruptions on European output and find that a decline in the Russian oil and gas supply in 2022 could lead to a sizable drop in European output over 2023–24, though the effect differs across countries and sectors .
Journal Article
Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility
Troy Davig, Nida ak?r Melek, Jun Nie, Lee Smith, and Didem Tzemen find changes in expectations of future oil supply relative to demand are the main drivers of the recent oil price decline.