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Author:Neal, Robert 

Journal Article
Credit derivatives: new financial instruments for controlling credit risk

One of the risks of making a bank loan or investing in a debt security is credit risk, the risk of borrower default. In response to this risk, new financial instruments called credit derivatives have been developed in the past few years. Credit derivatives can help banks, financial companies, and investors manage the credit risk of their investments by insuring against adverse movements in the credit quality of the borrower. If a borrower defaults, the investor will suffer losses on the investment, but the losses can be offset by gains from the credit derivative. Thus, if used properly, ...
Economic Review , Volume 81 , Issue Q II , Pages 15-27

Working Paper
Do measures of investor sentiment predict returns?

It has long been market folklore that the best time to buy stocks is when individual investors are bearish. We examine the forecast power of three popular measures of individual investor sentiment: the level of discounts on closed-end funds, the ratio of odd-lot sales to purchases, and net mutual fund redemptions. Using data from 1933 to 1993, we find evidence that fund discounts and net redemptions predict the size premiums, the difference between small and large firm returns, but little evidence that the odd-lot ratio predicts returns.
Research Working Paper , Paper 96-10

Working Paper
How reliable are adverse selection models of the bid-ask spread?

Theoretical models of the adverse selection component of bid-asked spreads predict the component arises from asymmetric information about a firm's fundamental value. We test this prediction using two well known models [Glosten and Harris (1988) and George, Kaul, and Nimalendran (1991)] to estimate the adverse selection component for closed-end funds. Closed-end funds hold diversified portfolios and report their net asset values on a weekly basis. Thus, there should be little uncertainty about their fundamental values and their adverse selection components should be minimal. Estimates of the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 95-02

Working Paper
Direct tests of index arbitrage models

Previous tests of stock index arbitrage models have rejected the no-arbitrage constraint imposed by these models. This paper provides a detailed analysis of actual S&P 500 arbitrage trades and directly relates these trades to the predictions of index arbitrage models. An analysis of arbitrage trades suggests that (i) short sale rules are unlikely to restrict arbitrage, (ii) the opportunity cost of arbitrage funds exceeds the Treasury Bill rate, and (iii) the average price discrepancy captured by arbitrage trades is small. Tests of the models provide some support for a version of the arbitrage ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 95-03

Working Paper
Transaction costs in an emerging market: the case of Indonesia

Despite the dramatic increase in the flow of funds to emerging stock markets, relatively little is known about the cost of transacting on these markets. This paper estimates the execution costs of trading on a representative emerging market stock exchange, the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX). We find that execution costs are affected by the difficulty of the trade, the size of the firm traded, and the broker executing the trade. Surprisingly, we find that execution costs on the JSX are only modestly higher than average execution costs in several non-U.S. developed stock markets. In addition, we ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 96-11

Working Paper
Credit spreads and interest rates : a cointegration approach

This paper uses cointegration to model the time-series of corporate and government bond rates. We show that corporate rates are cointegrated with government rates and the relation between credit spreads and Treasury rates depends on the time horizon. In the short-run, an increase in Treasury rates causes credit spreads to narrow. This effect is reversed over the long-run and higher rates cause spreads to widen. The positive long-run relation between spreads and Treasuries is inconsistent with prominent models for pricing corporate bonds, analyzing capital structure, and measuring the interest ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-08



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Wheatley, Simon M. 2 items

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