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Working Paper
Durable financial regulation: monitoring financial instruments as a counterpart to regulating financial institutions
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2010)
Superseded by Working Paper 13-2 ; This paper sets forth a discussion framework for the information requirements of systemic financial regulation. It specifically proposes a large macro-micro database for the U.S. based on an extended version of the Flow of Funds. The author argues that such a database would have been of material value to U.S. regulators in ameliorating the recent financial crisis and will be of aid in understanding the potential vulnerabilities of an innovative financial system in the future. The author also argues that the data should -- under strict confidentiality ...
Working Papers , Paper 10-22

Working Paper
Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble
Brueckner, Jan K.; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Calem, Paul S. (2011)
This paper explores the link between the house-price expectations of mortgage lenders and the extent of subprime lending. It argues that bubble conditions in the housing market are likely to spur subprime lending, with favorable price expectations easing the default concerns of lenders and thus increasing their willingness to extend loans to risky borrowers. Since the demand created by subprime lending feeds back onto house prices, such lending also helps to fuel an emerging housing bubble. The paper, however, focuses on the reverse causal linkage, where subprime lending is a consequence ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-12

Working Paper
Benchmark revisions and the U.S. personal saving rate.
Stark, Tom; Nakamura, Leonard I. (2005)
Initially published estimates of the personal saving rate from 1965 Q3 to 1999 Q2, which averaged 5.3 percent, have been revised up 2.8 percentage points to 8.1 percent, as we document. We show that much of the initial variation in the personal saving rate across time was meaningless noise. Nominal disposable personal income has been revised upward an average of 8.4 percent: one dollar in 12 was originally missing! We use both conventional and real-time estimates of the personal saving rate to forecast real disposable income, gross domestic product, and personal consumption and show that the ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-6

Working Paper
National income accounts.
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2006)
This article presents a brief overview of the national income accounts. It summarizes the main parts of accounts and situates them within the efforts of economists to quantify economic activity and economic well-being. The author argues that these statistics are necessarily provisional and imperfect but nevertheless extremely useful. Some current directions for economic research seeking to extend the accounts are also discussed.
Working Papers , Paper 06-11

Working Paper
Valuing “free” media across countries in GDP
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I. (2015-07-02)
?Free? consumer entertainment and information from the Internet, largely supported by advertising revenues, has had a major impact on consumer behavior. Some economists believe that measured gross domestic product (GDP) growth since 2000 is too low because it excludes online entertainment (Brynjolfsson and Oh 2012; Ito 2013). Similar large effects on consumers occurred with the arrival of free radio and television entertainment. We provide an experimental methodology that uses previously established GDP measurement procedures to value advertising-supported entertainment around the world. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-25

Working Paper
Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Hulten, Charles R. (2017-07-31)
We extend the conventional Solow growth accounting model to allow innovation to affect consumer welfare directly. Our model is based on Lancaster?s New Approach to Consumer Theory, in which there is a separate ?consumption technology? that transforms the produced goods, measured at production cost, into utility. This technology can shift over time, allowing consumers to make more efficient use of each dollar of income. This is ?output-saving? technical change, in contrast to the Solow TFP ?resource-saving? technical change. One implication of our model is that living standards can rise at a ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-24

Working Paper
Climate Shocks in the Anthropocene Era: Should Net Domestic Product Reflect Climate Disasters?
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Sliker, Brian (2025-01-07)
The asset costs of natural disasters in the United States grew rapidly from 1980 to 2023, with the trend rising 4.9 percent annually in real terms to $90 billion in 2023. Much of this trend in costs is likely due to climate change and, as a loss of assets, implies a faster depreciation of real assets. We argue that the expected depreciation from these events should be included in Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC), leading to lower levels and slightly lower growth rates for Net Domestic Product (NDP) and Net Domestic Investment. We use Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood regressions to estimate ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-01

Working Paper
Learning in the marketplace: free entry is free riding
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Lang, William W. (1989)
Working Papers , Paper 89-13

Working Paper
Banking and finance in Argentina in the period 1900–35
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Zarazaga, Carlos E. (2001-06-01)
From 1900 to 1935, Argentina evolved from an economy highly dependent on external, primarily British, finance to one more nearly self-sufficient. We examine the failure of domestic finance to adequately fill the void left by the decline of London and the breakdown of the world financial system in the interwar period, when neither the Buenos Aires Bolsa nor the private domestic banks developed rapidly enough to fully replace British investors as efficient channels for financing private investment. One consequence is that Argentine investable funds were increasingly concentrated in a single ...
Working Papers , Paper 0108

Working Paper
What is the U.S. gross investment in intangibles? (At least) one trillion dollars a year!
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2001)
This paper argues that the rate of intangible investment ? investment in the development and marketing of new products ? accelerated in the wake of the electronics revolution in the 1970s. The paper presents preliminary direct and indirect empirical evidence that US private firms currently invest at least $1 trillion annually in intangibles. This rate of investment roughly equals US gross investment in nonresidential tangible assets. It also suggests that the capital stock of intangibles in the US has an equilibrium market value of at least $5 trillion.
Working Papers , Paper 01-15

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