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Author:Mustre-del-Rio, Jose 

Journal Article
The wage cycle and shadow labor supply

Macro Bulletin

Working Paper
Financial Distress and Macroeconomic Risks

This paper investigates how, and how much, household financial distress (FD), arising from allowing debts to go unpaid, matters for the aggregate and cross-sectional consumption responses to macroeconomic risk. Through a battery of structural models, we show that FD can affect consumption responses through three channels: (1) as another margin of adjustment to shocks (direct channel); (2) because its persistence implies a significant degree of preference heterogeneity (indirect channel); and (3) because it can exacerbate macroeconomic risks whenever it is more severe in the hardest-hit ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-025

Working Paper
Financial frictions and occupational mobility

An important risk faced by individuals is labor income risk associated with changes in demand for an individual?s selected occupation. This risk reflects uncertainty about future income on the current job. As an example, the declining competitiveness of the U.S. automobile or steel sectors are events that are unanticipated from the perspective of a worker, yet have a strong bearing on future labor income for these workers. One way to limit labor income risk is by switching occupations. This, however, is costly because of retraining costs, forgone earnings, and lost occupational specific ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 12-06

Journal Article
The shadow labor supply and its implications for the unemployment rate

In the wake of the Great Recession there has been a sharp rise in the number of people who indicate they want a job, but are not actively seeking one. This group, on the periphery of the labor market, may be viewed as a "shadow labor supply." Since they are not actively seeking work, they are not counted by the government as unemployed and not considered part of the labor force. But if many start seeking jobs as the economy recovers, the unemployment rate could rise or at least slow its descent. Davig and Mustre-del-Ro analyze possible flow rates from this group and other non-employed ...
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 5-29

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks. We uncover two essential facts: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of financial distress prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. Using ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-6

Journal Article
Dissecting Wage Dispersion

Wages are substantially dispersed across workers, jobs, and employers in the U.S. economy. Although some of that dispersion is due to demographic factors, the authors found that after controlling for those differences, both ?who you are? (the permanent component of wage dispersion) and ?where you work? (the match-specific component of wagedispersion) contribute to the range of wages paid.
Economic Review , Issue Q III , Pages 35-52

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel

During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks. We uncover two essential facts: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of financial distress prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. Using ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-25

Journal Article
As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back

The United States has faced two recent downturns in manufacturing: one from 2014 to 2015 and one that has been ongoing since 2018. We examine consumption growth at the state level to see how consumers have responded to the current downturn relative to the last. We find that during the current downturn, changes in consumption growth at the state level have been negatively correlated with the state?s share of workers in manufacturing. In contrast, we find the opposite relationship during the 2014?15 downturn.
Economic Bulletin

Financial Distress and the Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections

States hit by the second wave are seeing new cases grow more rapidly in counties with higher financial distress.
On the Economy

Journal Article
KC Fed LMCI Implies the Labor Market Is Closer to a Full Recovery than the Unemployment Rate Alone Suggests

By consolidating information from a broad range of labor market variables, the Kansas City Fed Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) provide a consistent gauge of labor market tightness. Adjusting the unemployment rate to incorporate information from the LMCI suggests the labor market is closer to a full recovery than the unemployment rate alone implies.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 19, 2021 , Pages 3

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