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Author:Murphy, Anthony 

Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact

To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak

We develop a Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) based on a range of mobility metrics from Safegraph geolocation data, and validate the index with mobility data from Google and Unacast. We construct MEIs at the county, MSA, state and nationwide level, and link these measures to indicators of economic activity. According to our measures, the bulk of sheltering-in-place and social disengagement occurred during the week of March 15 and simultaneously across the U.S. At the national peak of the decline in mobility in early April, localities that engaged in a 10% larger decrease in mobility than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014

Working Paper
Understanding the Exposure at Default Risk of Commercial Real Estate Construction and Land Development Loans

We study and model the determinants of exposure at default (EAD) for large U.S. construction and land development loans from 2010 to 2017. EAD is an important component of credit risk, and commercial real estate (CRE) construction loans are more risky than income producing loans. This is the first study modeling the EAD of construction loans. The underlying EAD data come from a large, confidential supervisory dataset used in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual Comprehensive Capital Assessment Review (CCAR) stress tests. EAD reflects the relative bargaining ability and information sets of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007

Journal Article
High school financial literacy mandate could boost Texans' economic well-being

National surveys suggest Texans have a relatively low level of financial literacy that can adversely affect decision-making. Since state lawmakers mandated high school financial coursework in 2007, consumer credit measures of young Texas adults have improved.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q1 , Pages 10-13

Working Paper
Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US

The consumption behaviour of U.K., U.S. and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S. but not Japanese households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption-to-income ratio shifted up in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage downpayment constraints eased and as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1002

Journal Article
When will the U.S. housing market stabilize?

The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the housing market stabilize and support the economic recovery? We suggest that new home construction may stabilize and start recovering slowly within the next year or so. Our econometric results also indicate that national house prices may hit bottom late this year or in early 2012 and then recover slowly.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Working Paper
The Contribution of Jump Activity and Sign to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

This paper proposes a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and by sign. We also provide noise-robust versions of the ABD jump test (Andersen et al. 2007) and realized semivariance measures for use at high frequency sampling intervals. The volatility forecasting exercise involves the use of different types of jumps, forecast horizons, sampling frequencies, calendar and transaction time-based sampling schemes, as well as standard and noise-robust volatility measures. We find that infinite (finite) jumps improve the forecasts at shorter ...
Working Papers , Paper 1902

Journal Article
Liquidity mismatch helps predict bank failure and distress

Liquidity mismatch?the risk of a bank being unable to fund increases in assets or meet its obligations as they come due?increased in the U.S. banking sector during the run-up to the financial crisis, especially at the largest institutions, contributing to bank failure and distress.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 6 , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
The Death of the Phillips Curve?

Are inflation dynamics well captured by Phillips Curve models, or has this framework become less relevant over time? The evidence for the U.S. suggests that the slopes of the price and wage Phillips Curves? the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-offs ? are low and have got a little flatter. For example, the recursive estimate of the unemployment coefficient in the core PCE Phillips Curve has fallen a little from -0.09 to -0.07 since the Great Recession. However, the decline is not statistically significant. Dynamic forecasts from the wage and price Phillips Curves estimated using data ...
Working Papers , Paper 1801

Journal Article
Plunging oil prices: a boost for the U.S. economy, a jolt for Texas

Economic activity in the U.S. overall will benefit from the oil price collapse. The decline will, however, negatively affect oil-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-4

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