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Author:Murphy, Anthony 

Working Paper
Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices

The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of U.S. house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000s. We incorporate data on credit constraints for first-time buyers into a model of U.S. house prices based on the (inverted) demand for housing services. The model yields not only a stable long-run cointegrating relationship, a reasonable speed of adjustment, plausible income and price elasticities and an improved fit, but also sensible estimates of tax credit effects and the possible ...
Working Papers , Paper 1104

Journal Article
When will the U.S. housing market stabilize?

The hope that housing markets had stabilized in mid-2010 was dashed by subsequent declines in home construction and prices (Charts 1 and 2). Homebuilding peaked about five years ago, and housing prices almost four years ago. Amid such a prolonged downturn, a key question becomes, When will the housing market stabilize and support the economic recovery? We suggest that new home construction may stabilize and start recovering slowly within the next year or so. Our econometric results also indicate that national house prices may hit bottom late this year or in early 2012 and then recover slowly.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Working Paper
Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US

The consumption behaviour of U.K., U.S. and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S. but not Japanese households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption-to-income ratio shifted up in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage downpayment constraints eased and as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 1002

Journal Article
High school financial literacy mandate could boost Texans' economic well-being

National surveys suggest Texans have a relatively low level of financial literacy that can adversely affect decision-making. Since state lawmakers mandated high school financial coursework in 2007, consumer credit measures of young Texas adults have improved.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q1 , Pages 10-13

Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact

To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
The Contribution of Jump Activity and Sign to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

This paper proposes a novel approach to decompose realized jump measures by type of activity (finite/infinite) and by sign. We also provide noise-robust versions of the ABD jump test (Andersen et al. 2007) and realized semivariance measures for use at high frequency sampling intervals. The volatility forecasting exercise involves the use of different types of jumps, forecast horizons, sampling frequencies, calendar and transaction time-based sampling schemes, as well as standard and noise-robust volatility measures. We find that infinite (finite) jumps improve the forecasts at shorter ...
Working Papers , Paper 1902

Journal Article
Increased credit availability, rising asset prices help boost consumer spending

A combination of much less household debt, revived access to consumer credit and recovering asset prices have holstered U.S. consumer spending. This trend will likely continue despite an estimated 50 percent reduction since the mid-2000s of the housing wealth effect?an important amplifier during the boom years.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
House prices and credit constraints: making sense of the U.S. experience

Most U.S. house price models break down in the mid-2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the subprime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time homebuyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions?the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers?into house price-to-rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.
Working Papers , Paper 1103

Working Paper
The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. We consider the SPY and 20 stocks that vary by sector, volume and degree of jump activity. We use extended HAR-RV models, and consider different frequencies (5, 60 and 300 seconds), forecast horizons (1, 5, 22 and 66 days) and the use of standard and robust-to-noise volatility and threshold bipower variation measures. Incorporating signed finite and infinite jumps generates significantly better ...
Working Papers , Paper 1902

Journal Article
Liquidity mismatch helps predict bank failure and distress

Liquidity mismatch?the risk of a bank being unable to fund increases in assets or meet its obligations as they come due?increased in the U.S. banking sector during the run-up to the financial crisis, especially at the largest institutions, contributing to bank failure and distress.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 6 , Pages 1-4

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