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Working Paper
Common shocks and currency crises
This paper attempts to determine the extent to which common external shocks explain simultaneous currency crises. We define crises on a country by country basis using a new criterion that takes into account variations in the volatility of exchange rates over time and across countries. Using a Poisson regression model, we find that over the post-Bretton woods period, a small number of common external shocks can explain between sixty to eighty percent of the variation in the total number of crises over time, depending upon the set of countries one looks at. Our findings provide one explanation ...
Working Paper
Location and the growth of nations
Does a country's (long-term) growth depend upon what happens in countries that are nearby? Such linkages could occur for a variety of reasons, including demand and technology spillovers. We present a series of tests to determine the existence of such relationships and the forms that they might take. We find that a country's growth rate is closely related to that of nearby countries, and show that this correlation reflects more that the existence of common shocks. Trade alone does not appear responsible for these linkages either. In addition, we find that being near a large market ...
Journal Article
Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies
This paper uses nonparametric tests to provide a description of the "stylized facts" associated with episodes of speculative pressure in foreign exchange markets in Pacific Basin Economies and to see whether these "stylized facts" appear to be broadly consistent with the alternative explanations for such episodes suggested in the theoretical literature. ; The empirical results are mixed, but some are nonetheless suggestive. Larger budget deficits and growth in central bank domestic credit appear to be associated with episodes of depreciation rather than episodes of appreciation or ...
Journal Article
Stock prices and bank lending behavior in Japan
This study attempts to shed light on whether stock price movements have contributed to recent fluctuations in bank lending in Japan by examining the historical relationship between stock prices and bank lending in that country. It is found that prior to the mid-1980s the relationship between stock prices and bank lending was weak, but subsequently strengthened considerable. This coincided with a change in the regulatory environment that encouraged banking institutions to pay more attention to their capital positions. Since the late 1980s, fluctuations in stock prices appear to have made ...
Journal Article
Intervention, sterilization, and monetary control in Korea and Taiwan
This paper uses a four-variable vector autoregression model to explore how monetary authorities responded to shocks in Korea and Taiwan over the period 1981.1-1994.12. The analysis reveals that sterilization is an important element of the response to shocks to foreign assets in both economies. In particular, monetary authorities do not appear to be prepared to accept fluctuations in the exchange rate and the money supply that may result from changes in foreign assets, but more readily accept fluctuations in these variables that result from domestic credit shocks. There are also differences ...
Journal Article
Money, interest rates and economic activity: stylized facts for Japan
This paper examines how financial market changes affect the usefulness of two alternatve indicators of monetary policy in Japan, a monetary aggregate and an interest rate. The paper tests whether these variables are good predictors of output, and whether responses to shocks to these variables broadly conform to the implications of the monetary transmission model, over two periods between 1960 and 1992. In the earlier period when Japan's financial markets were less developed, a monetary aggregate (M2+CDs) is a relatively useful indicator of monetary policy whereas an interest rate ...
Journal Article
The Eurodollar market and U. S. residents
Journal Article
Monetary control without a central bank: the case of Hong Kong
Journal Article
Macroeconomic shocks and business cycles in Australia
A small vector autoregression model is estimated to assess how demand and supply shocks influence Australian output and price behavior. The model is identified by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have transitory effects on output, while aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects. The paper describes how Australian macroeconomic variables respond to demand and supply shocks in the short run and in the long run. It also finds that demand shocks are dominant in determining fluctuations in Australian output at a one-quarter horizon, but supply shocks assume the larger role at longer ...
Journal Article
Exchange rate policy and shocks to asset markets: the case of Taiwan in the 1980s
This paper uses a simple theoretical model to show how the credibility of unsterilized intervention policy may affect the pattern of adjustment in the exchange rate, velocity, and asset prices: When the outcome of unsterilized intervention is credible, any degree of exchange rate stability can be achieved at the cost of a sufficiently large, one-time change in the money supply. When the outcome of intervention is not credible, intervention can lead to persistent, and possibly accelerating, changes in exchange rates, the money supply, velocity, and asset prices. Under certain conditions, ...