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Author:Miller, Preston J. 

Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis

In this study we contrast fixed and floating exchange rate regimes in a dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the fundamental difference in the regimes is in the courses they imply for monetary policies. Because of policy coordination requirements, a tighter monetary policy needed to maintain a fixed exchange rate may necessitate a tightening in budget policy as well. We show that under some initial conditions voters or a social planner will favor one regime, but under other conditions they will favor the other. However, the choices of voters and a social planner are almost ...
Staff Report , Paper 194

How little we know about budget policy effects

Using a simple model, we show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies? findings can be shown to be consistent with either policies mattering or not.
Staff Report , Paper 120

Working Paper
Optimal income tax in a monetary economy

This study examines the shape of an optimal income tax schedule in a monetary economy. In equilibrium, money?s role is to allocate resources across generations, while a tax-transfer scheme serves as a form of social insurance. It is found that the optimal real income tax with money can be progressive.
Working Papers , Paper 244

Journal Article
The U.S. economy in 1980: shockwaves from 1979

Quarterly Review , Volume 4 , Issue Win

TIP: the wrong way to fight inflation

originally appeared in the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Spring 1978

Journal Article
A reply to Darby

Quarterly Review , Volume 8 , Issue Spr

Journal Article
A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP

This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.
Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Fall , Pages 27-31

The tax cut illusion

Annual Report

The jointly optimal inflation tax, income tax structure, and transfers

The welfare-maximizing income tax structure, rate of money creation, and amounts of intergenerational transfers are jointly determined for given rates of government consumption. When government consumption is zero, it is found for the parameter values examined that the income tax structure is progressive, the rate of money change is negative, and positive transfers are made to the old. As government consumption increases, the tax structure's progressivity declines and turns increasingly regressive, the rate of money change rises, and transfers decrease. It is found that the bulk of the ...
Staff Report , Paper 193

Working Paper
Categories of criticism of the rational expectations theory

Working Papers , Paper 49



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