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Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View
We provide new time-varying estimates of the housing wealth effect back to the 1980s. We use three identification strategies: OLS with a rich set of controls, the Saiz housing supply elasticity instrument, and a new instrument that exploits systematic differences in city-level exposure to regional house price cycles. All three identification strategies indicate that housing wealth elasticities were if anything slightly smaller in the 2000s than in earlier time periods. This implies that the important role housing played in the boom and bust of the 2000s was due to larger price movements ...
News shocks and business cycles
This article considers the question, raised by Beaudry and Portier in their recent articles, of whether "news shocks" can lead to expansions and contractions that look like business cycle movements. News shocks are to be thought of solely as affecting expectations (regarding future events) and thus do not influence current resource restrictions at all. So the question is, for example, whether news about lower future productivity could lead our key aggregate variables?consumption, investment, and employment?to co-move down now. Beaudry and Portier make the point that standard neoclassical ...
Evolution of commuting patterns in the New York City metro area
Has the migration of jobs to the suburbs changed the commuting patterns in the New York City metro area? An analysis of current commuting trends suggests that Manhattan remains the region's undisputed employment center and that workers are actually traveling farther to their jobs. Two factors appear to account for the longer commutes: the dispersion of people and jobs and a greater tolerance for long-distance travel among employers and employees.