Search Results
Working Paper
Will writing and bequest motives: early 20th century Irish evidence
This paper develops a simple model of the decision to write a will prior to death and tests the implications of the model using data from Ireland prior to the advent of state provided old age support. The model assumes that individuals write wills in order to change the distribution of their assets from the distribution that would occur in the absence of a will and that individuals incur will writing costs. The model leads to the predictions that individuals whose desired distribution differs most dramatically from the default and those who face the lowest costs will be the most likely to ...
Working Paper
Revenue bubbles and structural deficits: What’s a state to do?
The 2001 recession proved alarming to state government finances. A relatively shallow national recession led to a severe downturn in state revenues that took three years to unwind. In the current economic downturn, early signs of fiscal stress are already apparent. This raises several fundamental questions: * Since 1984 the U.S. macroeconomy entered into the "Great Moderation" in which economic volatility was reduced. Has state revenue volatility relative to the business cycle increased during this period? * Has the composition of state revenues and expenditures made states more susceptible ...
Working Paper
Tax Credits and the Debt Position of U.S. Households
This paper investigates the effect of tax credit receipt on the outstanding indebtedness of households. In particular, we use data on zip code level indebtedness to explore whether debt levels and past due amounts change more dramatically during tax refund season in those zip codes where households receive greater Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) refunds. We see a substantial decline in debt past due in high tax credit zip codes during tax refund season indicating that some recipient households use tax refunds to repair their balance sheets. At the same ...
Journal Article
Variations in consumer sentiment across demographic groups
Consumer sentiment is one of the many macroeconomic indicators tracked by policymakers and the public. The aggregate numbers in consumer sentiment indexes, such as the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, conceal a wealth of demographic-specific information. The authors' findings suggest that index disaggregation by group matters because consumer sentiment varies systematically by demographic group.
Journal Article
Unprepared for boom or bust: understanding the current state fiscal crisis
The headlines concerning state government finances have become increasingly alarming since mid-2001. This article discusses the roots of the current state fiscal crisis by looking at the decisions made by state government leaders during the long expansion. The author suggests increased use of rainy day funds as a way to avoid future crisis.
Newsletter
Food inflation and the consumption patterns of U.S. households
In July 2008, food prices were 6.0% above their July 2007 level. This article examines how different household types have been affected by the recent rapid rise in food prices.
Working Paper
Charity and the bequests motive: evidence from seventeenth century wills
This paper researches the motivations for charitable bequests by looking at gifts to the poor in the wills of 1357 testators who died in Suffolk, England in the 1620's and 1630's. I find that wealth, religiosity, and the presence of family and friends influence testator generosity. The finding that wealthier, more religious individuals, and those with fewer children give more to the poor support an altruistic model of testator utility. However, the finding that individuals who give to more people outside of their immediate families are more likely to give to the poor contradicts the simple ...
Journal Article
How do EITC recipients spend their refunds?
The authors determine what items are purchased using the earned income tax credit (EITC)?one of the largest sources of public support for lower-income working families in the U.S. They find that recipient households? EITC payments are used primarily for vehicle purchases and transportation spending, both of which are crucial to job access and consistent with the EITC?s prowork goals.
Working Paper
The earned income credit and durable goods purchase
Working Paper
Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?
When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate binds, monetary policy makers may lack traditional tools to stimulate aggregate demand. We investigate whether ?unconventional? fiscal policy, in the form of pre-announced consumption tax changes, has the potential to meaningfully shift durables purchases intertemporally and how it is affected by consumer credit. In particular, we test whether car sales react in anticipation of future sales tax changes, leveraging 57 pre-announced changes in state sales tax rates from 1999-2017. We find evidence for substantial tax elasticities, with car ...