Search Results
Journal Article
Measuring Fiscal Impetus: The Great Recession in Historical Context
The authors use a measure of fiscal impetus to examine how fiscal policy has behaved during business cycles in the past, how it responded to the most recent recession, and how it is likely to evolve over the next several years. They find that policy was more expansionary than average during the 2007 recession and has been significantly more contractionary than average during the recovery. By the end of 2012, fiscal impetus was below its historical business-cycle average and it is forecast to remain depressed well into the future.
Journal Article
How do EITC recipients spend their refunds?
The authors determine what items are purchased using the earned income tax credit (EITC)?one of the largest sources of public support for lower-income working families in the U.S. They find that recipient households? EITC payments are used primarily for vehicle purchases and transportation spending, both of which are crucial to job access and consistent with the EITC?s prowork goals.
Newsletter
Consumer Credit Trends by Income and Geography in 2001–12
As economists have tried to understand the causes of the Great Recession and its consequences for households and firms, a consensus has emerged: The severity of the recession was amplified by the rapid buildup in consumer credit leading up to it and the subsequent credit retrenchment. However, the credit cycle played out unevenly among individuals of different financial means and across different parts of the U.S. Thus, one potential key to understanding the Great Recession is documenting how credit trends varied across the distribution of income and across geography, as well as across the ...
Working Paper
Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?
When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate binds, monetary policy makers may lack traditional tools to stimulate aggregate demand. We investigate whether ?unconventional? fiscal policy, in the form of pre-announced consumption tax changes, has the potential to meaningfully shift durables purchases intertemporally and how it is affected by consumer credit. In particular, we test whether car sales react in anticipation of future sales tax changes, leveraging 57 pre-announced changes in state sales tax rates from 1999-2017. We find evidence for substantial tax elasticities, with car ...
Newsletter
State tax revenues over the business cycle: patterns and policy responses
State tax revenues have become far more sensitive to changing economic conditions since the turn of the century. The authors document this increasing volatility and offer suggestions for what state governments might do to better manage their tax revenues to avoid or minimize dramatic fiscal downturns.
Newsletter
Food inflation and the consumption patterns of U.S. households
In July 2008, food prices were 6.0% above their July 2007 level. This article examines how different household types have been affected by the recent rapid rise in food prices.
Newsletter
The Fiscal Cliff and the Dynamics of Income
At the end of 2012, certain income tax policies were set to end and others to become effective. Central among these was the planned expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts (the ?Bush tax cuts?), which had been extended for two years in 2010.
Working Paper
On the relationship between mobility, population growth, and capital spending in the United States
In this paper, we assess the empirical relationship between population growth, mobility, and state-level capital spending in the United States. To evaluate the magnitude of the coefficients, we introduce an explicit, quantitative political-economy model of government spending determination, where mobility and population growth generate departures from Ricardian equivalence. Our estimates find strong responses in the level of capital provision per capita to these demographic movements; in fact, the resulting coefficients are stronger than the model delivers. Regression coefficients on ...
Working Paper
Revenue bubbles and structural deficits: What’s a state to do?
The 2001 recession proved alarming to state government finances. A relatively shallow national recession led to a severe downturn in state revenues that took three years to unwind. In the current economic downturn, early signs of fiscal stress are already apparent. This raises several fundamental questions: * Since 1984 the U.S. macroeconomy entered into the "Great Moderation" in which economic volatility was reduced. Has state revenue volatility relative to the business cycle increased during this period? * Has the composition of state revenues and expenditures made states more susceptible ...
Working Paper
The earned income credit and durable goods purchase