Private Forecasters’ COVID-19 Global Growth Outlook Takes Shape
Private forecasters have anticipated since April 2 that the economy would contract for two consecutive quarters, marking a global recession unlike any seen in peacetime.
The balance sheet channel
In this paper, we study the role of the credit channel of monetary policy in a synthesis model of the economy. Through the use of a well-specified banking sector and a regulatory capital constraint on lending, we provide an alternate mechanism that can potentially explain the periods of asymmetry in monetary policy without appealing to ad-hoc central bank preferences. This is accomplished through the characterization of the external finance premium that includes bank leverage and systemic risk.
Investment and trade patterns in a sticky-price, open-economy model
This paper develops a tractable two-country DSGE model with sticky prices la Calvo (1983) and local-currency pricing. We analyze the capital investment decision in the presence of adjustment costs of two types, the capital adjustment cost (CAC) specification and the investment adjustment cost (IAC) specification. We compare the investment and trade patterns with adjustment costs against those of a model without adjustment costs and with (quasi-) flexible prices. We show that having adjustment costs results into more volatile consumption and net exports, and less volatile investment. We ...
Technical note on "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?"
This technical note is developed in part as a mathematical companion to the paper ?The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?? (GMPI working paper no. 17). Our two-country model incorporates capital accumulation with adjustment costs, variable capital utilization and investment-specific technological shocks. Nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition distort the goods markets of each country and allow monetary policy to have real effects. We investigate two different international pricing scenarios, local-currency pricing (where the law of one price fails) and ...
Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective
In this paper, I explore the changes in international business cycles with quarterly data for the eight largest advanced economies (U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, and Canada) since the 1960s. Using a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility for real GDP growth and inflation allows their dynamics to change over time, approximating nonlinearities in the data that otherwise would not be adequately accounted for with linear models (Granger et al. (1991), Granger (2008)). With that empirical model, I document a period of declining macro volatility since the 1980s, ...
The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on interest rate expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of forward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates muted forward guidance effectiveness relative to the fully credible case. Hence, anticipation effects are attenuated ...
Systemic Risks, Interdependencies Weigh on 2021 Global Outlook
The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.7 percent for 2021.
On the sustainability of exchange rate target zones with central parity realignments
I show that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long-run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler?s ruin problem. However, low credibility and frequent realignments can destabilize the exchange rate.
Go Figure: Texas Home Prices Head Through the Roof
The euro and the dollar in the crisis and beyond
The euro has survived its first decade, overcoming questions about its viability and political and economic raison d'tre. ?The Euro and the Dollar in the Crisis and Beyond,? a conference sponsored by Bruegel, the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, marked the milestone on March 17, 2010, with discussions of Europe?s monetary integration, the euro?s global role relative to the dollar and the currency?s prospects in the aftermath of the 2008?09 global recession.