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Journal Article
Risk, uncertainty separately cloud global growth forecasting
Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.
Working Paper
Technical note on "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?"
This technical note is developed in part as a mathematical companion to the paper ?The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?? (GMPI working paper no. 17). Our two-country model incorporates capital accumulation with adjustment costs, variable capital utilization and investment-specific technological shocks. Nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition distort the goods markets of each country and allow monetary policy to have real effects. We investigate two different international pricing scenarios, local-currency pricing (where the law of one price fails) and ...
Working Paper
The market resources method for solving dynamic optimization problems
We introduce the market resources method (MRM) for solving dynamic optimization problems. MRM extends Carroll?s (2006) endogenous grid point method (EGM) for problems with more than one control variable using policy function iteration. The MRM algorithm is simple to implement and provides advantages in terms of speed and accuracy over Howard?s policy improvement algorithm. Codes are available.
Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
Working Paper
Global slack as a determinant of U.S. inflation
Resource utilization, or "slack," is widely held to be an important determinant of inflation dynamics. As the world has become more globalized in recent decades, some have argued that the concept of slack that is relevant is global rather than domestic (the "global slack hypothesis"). This line of argument is consistent with standard New Keynesian theory. However, the empirical evidence is fragile, at best, possibly because of a disconnect between empirical and theory-consistent measures of output gaps.
Skimming U.S. Housing Froth a Delicate, Daunting Task
The possibility of a sharp price correction leading to an economic contraction—were one to materialize—would further complicate Federal Reserve inflation-fighting efforts.
Working Paper
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four novel findings: First, we show that the open-economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed-economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a monetary policy rule in which the domestic real policy rate tracks the Wicksellian domestic short-term natural rate ...
Working Paper
A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints
We study a generalized version of Coleman (1990)’s time iteration method (GTI) for solving dynamic optimization problems. Our benchmark framework is an irreversible investment model with labor-leisure choice. The GTI algorithm is simple to implement and provides advantages in terms of speed relative to Howard (1960)’s improvement algorithm. A second application on a heterogeneous-agents incomplete-markets model further explores the performance of GTI.
Working Paper
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
We propose a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility for the unemployment rate, core inflation and the federal funds rate augmented with survey-based interest rate expectations and uncertainty and a FAVAR with a wider set of observable variables and alternative monetary policy measures in order to explore U.S. monetary policy, accounting for the zero lower bound. We find that a rise in monetary policy uncertainty increases unemployment and lowers core inflation; the effects on unemployment in particular are robust (a gradual 0.4 percentage point increase), lasting more than two years after the ...
Journal Article
Investment enhances emerging economies' living standards
Investment helps countries at all levels of economic development reap productivity gains from new technologies and improve living standards. Investing to support innovation and a skilled workforce is as crucial for China as it is for the U.S.