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Author:Martinez-Garcia, Enrique 

Journal Article
Investment enhances emerging economies' living standards

Investment helps countries at all levels of economic development reap productivity gains from new technologies and improve living standards. Investing to support innovation and a skilled workforce is as crucial for China as it is for the U.S.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 5 , Pages 1-4

Working Paper
exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R

This paper introduces the R package exuber for testing and date-stamping periods of mildly explosive dynamics (exuberance) in time series. The package computes test statistics for the supremum ADF test (SADF) of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), the generalized SADF (GSADF) of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b), and the panel GSADF proposed by Pavlidis, Yusupova, Paya, Peel, Martínez-García, Mack and Grossman (2016); generates finite-sample critical values based on Monte Carlo and bootstrap methods; and implements the corresponding date-stamping procedures. The recursive least-squares algorithm that ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 383

Working Paper
A cross-country quarterly database of real house prices: a methodological note

We build from (mainly) publicly available national sources a database of (nominal and real) house prices?complemented with data on private disposable income (PDI)?for 19 advanced countries at a quarterly frequency, starting in the first quarter of 1975. We select a house price index for each country that is consistent with the U.S. FHFA quarterly nationwide house price index for existing single-family houses (formerly called OFHEO house price index), and extend the country series back to 1975 with available historical data whenever necessary. Each house price index is seasonallyadjusted over ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 99

Journal Article
A historical look at the labor market during recessions

Turmoil in housing, credit and financial markets plunged the U.S. economy into a recession that has taken a heavy toll on the labor market. The weakness that began during the second half of 2007 gravely worsened during a period of extreme financial stress in 2008, and the labor market has yet to recover. To put the recession's labor-market impact into perspective, we compare the past two years to previous downturns, including the Great Depression. We also examine the data commonly used to assess labor market conditions. While unemployment rates and nonfarm payroll losses are widely reported, ...
Economic Letter , Volume 5

Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates

While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists.
Dallas Fed Economics

Globalization: The Elephant in the Room That Is No More

Unlike what has been conventionally argued, the forces of globalization appear to be?if anything?a headwind to the conduct of monetary policy for the purpose of macroeconomic stabilization.
Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute

Journal Article
Technological progress is key to improving world living standards

Technological progress appears to have shifted around 2001, when the median emerging economy?s growth rate accelerated and surpassed that of advanced economies.
Economic Letter , Volume 8 , Issue 4

Working Paper
A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)

The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for the study of globalization. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad coverage for quarterly real GDP, and the monthly series of industrial production (IP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), merchandise exports and imports, headline CPI, CPI (ex. food and energy), PPI/WPI inflation, nominal and real exchange rates, and official/policy interest rates (see Grossman, Mack, and Martnez-Garca (2013)). ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 169

Working Paper
Forecasting local inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?

This paper provides both theoretical insight as well as empirical evidence in support of the view that inflation is largely a global phenomenon. First, we show that inflation across countries incorporates a significant common factor captured by global inflation. Second, we show that in theory a role for global inflation in local inflation dynamics emerges over the business cycle even without common shocks, and under flexible exchange rates and complete international asset markets. Third, we identify a strong "error correction mechanism" that brings local inflation rates back in line with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 235

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis

We review the macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 399


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