Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 60.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Lubik, Thomas A. 

Briefing
Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches

The natural rate of interest is a key concept in monetary economics because its level relative to the real rate of interest allows economists to assess the stance of monetary policy. However, the natural rate of interest cannot be observed; it must be calculated using identifying assumptions. This Economic Brief compares the popular Laubach-Williams approach to calculating the natural rate with an alternative method that imposes fewer theoretical restrictions. Both approaches indicate that the natural rate has been above the real rate for a long time.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Oct

Working Paper
Searching for Hysteresis

We search for the presence of hysteresis, which we dene as aggregate demand shocks that have a permanent impact on real GDP, in the U.S., the Euro Area, and the U.K. Working with cointegrated structural VARs, we nd essentially no evidence of such effects. Within a Classical statistical framework, it is virtually impossible to detect such shocks. Within a Bayesian context, the presence of these shocks can be mechanically imposed upon the data. However, unless a researcher is willing to impose the restriction that the sign of their long-run impact on GDP is the same for all draws, which amounts ...
Working Paper , Paper 21-03

Journal Article
Non-stationarity and instability in small open-economy models even when they are \\"closed\\"

Economic Quarterly , Volume 93 , Issue Fall , Pages 393-412

Working Paper
What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed

Beginning in the mid-1980s, the nature of U.S. business cycles changed in important ways, as made evident by distinctive shifts in the comovement and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates. These include labor productivity, hours, output, and inventories. Unlike the widely documented change in absolute volatility over that period, known as the Great Moderation, these shifts in comovement and relative volatilities persist into the Great Recession. To understand these changes, we exploit the fact that inventory data are informative about sources of business cycles. Specifically, they ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-6

Journal Article
How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?

We estimate the probability that the federal funds rate will be at or below the zero lower bound over a ten-year time horizon. We do so by specifying and estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for key US macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the estimated model, we generate a distribution of future outcomes from which we compute such probabilities. We find that the zero lower bound probability ranges between 15 percent and 30 percent in the longer term depending on the specific measure used. In the near term, this probability is effectively zero. Robustness checks for ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 41-54

Working Paper
Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information

We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets: The fully informed agents know the structure of the model and observe histories of all exogenous and endogenous variables. The less informed agents observe only a strict subset of the full information set. All types of agents form expectations rationally, but agents with limited information need to solve a dynamic signal extraction problem to gather information about the variables they do not observe. We show that for parameter values that imply a unique equilibrium under full ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-17

Journal Article
Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model

We demonstrate the possibility of indeterminacy and nonexistence of equilibrium dynamics in a standard business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Our results arise for empirically plausible parameterizations and do not rely on a mechanism such as increasing returns.
Economic Quarterly , Volume 96 , Issue 3Q , Pages 259-272

Briefing
Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries

We provide estimates of r* — a central concept in monetary policy — for a set of countries using the same methodology as for the Richmond Fed's own r* estimate for the U.S. We generally find that the estimated r* paths are country specific, but that they behave more similarly to each other than to the U.S., indicating its central role in the international monetary system.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 24 , Issue 10

Journal Article
Accounting for the non-employment of U.S. men, 1968-2010

We conduct an accounting exercise of the changes in aggregate employment, unemployment, and out of labor force (OLF) among 25?64-year-old men from 1968?2010. We decompose the observed changes in these labor market outcomes into changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population and changes in the labor market outcomes of different sociodemographic groups. Using the results of the decomposition, we predict that the OLF-to-population ratio for men will increase to 16 percent in 2015, up from 14.7 percent in 2010.
Economic Quarterly , Volume 97 , Issue 4Q , Pages 359-387

Briefing
Using Inventories to Help Explain Post-1984 Business Cycles

Real business cycle (RBC) models have been highly successful at explaining business cycles that occurred before 1984. But since then, shifts in comovements and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates have challenged their preeminence. One possible refinement of the standard RBC model is to include multiple stages of production. This extension allows researchers to use inventory data to estimate the discount rate that firms use to assess future income streams. The results indicate that variations in the discount rate reflect financial frictions that have become significant drivers of ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue June

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

C32 6 items

E32 5 items

E3 4 items

E2 3 items

E52 3 items

C11 2 items

show more (16)

FILTER BY Keywords

Monetary policy 8 items

business cycles 8 items

Labor market 6 items

Inflation (Finance) 5 items

Unemployment 5 items

inflation 3 items

show more (94)

PREVIOUS / NEXT