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Author:Loungani, Prakash 

Working Paper
Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries

This paper examines the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates using three different approaches across four currencies and two horizons with 20 years of data. Each approach gives some encouragement that this relationship might hold, but each approach also encounters problems establishing the form or usefulness of the relationship. On balance, this paper contributes to the literature by finding more encouraging results than in earlier studies, but it still remains to be demonstrated that the real exchange rate-real interest rate relationship is the linchpin to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 517

Journal Article
Stock market dispersion and business cycles

Economic Perspectives , Volume 15 , Issue Jan , Pages 2-8

Working Paper
The role of energy in real business cycle models

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 91-6

Working Paper
Minimum wages and firm employment: evidence from China

This paper studies how minimum wage policies affect firm employment in China using a unique county level minimum wage data set matched to disaggregated firm survey data. We investigate both the effect of imposing a minimum wage, and the effect of the policies that tightened enforcement in 2004. We find that the average effect of minimum wage changes is modest and positive, and that there is a detectable effect after enforcement reform. Firms have heterogeneous responses to minimum wage changes which can be accounted for by differences in their wage levels and profit margins: firms with high ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 173

Journal Article
Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks

We include a stock market-based measure of sectoral shocks in a small VAR to examine the role played by these shocks in explaining the behavior of the unemployment rate. Sectoral shocks explain a significant proportion of the variation in the unemployment rate - especially the long-duration unemployment rate - even though other kinds of shocks (such as shocks to monetary policy, defense expenditures, and oil prices) are allowed to affect the unemployment rate. A historical decomposition reveals that recession, and they explain only a modest part of the rise in unemployment over the 1990 ...
Economic Review

Working Paper
Structural unemployment and public policy in interwar Britain: a review essay

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 91-1

Journal Article
Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.--how similar are they?

This article examines the sources of fluctuations in Japanese and U.S. labor markets. Despite the differences in the structures of the two labor markets, the authors find that unemployment and vacancies respond similarly to aggregate shocks. However, different shocks appear to be important in explaining fluctuations in the two labor markets.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 21 , Issue May

Working Paper
Central bank independence, inflation and growth in transition economies

In this paper, we document two empirical relationships that have emerged as the former communist countries have taken steps to transform their economies from command systems to market-based systems. First, increased central bank independence has tended to improve inflation performance. Second, high inflation has adversely affected real activity. More specifically, in the first section of this paper, we develop indices of central bank independence (CBI) for twelve transition economies and examine the relationship between CBI and inflation performance across these countries. Statistical ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 519

Journal Article
Predicting when the economy will turn

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?

Do increases in China's exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies? We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though usually not significant), even after controlling for trading-partner income growth and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in determining Asian export growth. Although exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 789


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