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Author:Linder, M. Henry 

Journal Article
The parts are more than the whole: separating goods and services to predict core inflation

Economists have not been altogether successful in their efforts to forecast ?core? inflation?an inflation measure that typically excludes volatile food and energy prices. One possible explanation is that the models used to make these forecasts fail to distinguish the forces influencing price changes in core services from those affecting price changes in core goods. While core services inflation depends on long-run inflation expectations and the degree of slack in the labor market, core goods inflation depends on short-run inflation expectations and import prices. By using a composite model ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 19 , Issue Aug

Discussion Paper
The Long and Short of It: The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth

How tight is the labor market? The unemployment rate is down substantially from its October 2009 peak, but two-thirds of the decline is due to people dropping out of the labor force. In addition, an unusually large share of the unemployed has been out of work for twenty-seven weeks or more?the long-duration unemployed. These statistics suggest that there remains a great deal of slack in U.S. labor markets, which should be putting downward pressure on labor compensation. Instead, compensation growth has moved modestly higher since 2009. A potential explanation is that the long-duration ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140212

Discussion Paper
The Effect of Superstorm Sandy on the Macroeconomy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at a very sluggish 0.4 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2012. A natural question to ask is to what extent, if any, did superstorm Sandy contribute to this weak performance. While not a particularly intense storm, it was the largest Atlantic storm on record with a diameter of roughly 1,100 miles. The storm severely disrupted economic activity from late October until well into November along the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic region into New ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130422

Discussion Paper
Compensation Growth and Slack in the Current Economic Environment

Following a significant slowing during the recent recession, growth in various labor compensation measures has stabilized during the past two to three years. This stabilization is puzzling because it’s widely held that a significant amount of slack remains in the economy. Accordingly, this large amount of slack should result in a further slowing in compensation (wage) growth. In this post, we show that there’s a very mild trade-off between compensation growth and resource slack, even though slack is sizable. Consequently, the observation that there’s slow but steady growth in labor ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121119

Report
The FRBNY DSGE model

The goal of this paper is to present the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and used at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper describes how the model works, how it is estimated, how it rationalizes past history, including the Great Recession, and how it is used for forecasting and policy analysis.
Staff Reports , Paper 647

Discussion Paper
Drilling Down into Core Inflation: Goods versus Services

Among the measures of core inflation used to monitor the inflation outlook, the series excluding food and energy prices is probably the best known and most closely followed by policymakers and the public. While the conventional ?ex food and energy? measure is a composite of the price changes of a large number of different products and services, almost all models developed to explain and forecast its behavior do not distinguish between the goods and services categories. Is the distinction important? Here, we highlight the different behavior and determinants of goods inflation and services ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130605

Discussion Paper
An Assessment of the FRBNY DSGE Model's Real-Time Forecasts, 2010-2013

The previous post in this series showed how the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?s DSGE model can be used to provide an interpretation of the Great Recession and the slow recovery. In this post, we look at the role of the model as a forecasting tool and evaluate its forecasting performance since 2010. This analysis will give context for the last post, which will present the model?s current forecast for the U.S. economy.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140925b

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