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Financial development, financial constraints, and the volatility of industrial output
More financially developed countries show lower volatility of industrial output. Volatility is particularly reduced in industries that are more financially dependent. Most of the reduction is in idiosyncratic volatility. Systematic volatility is reduced less strongly, implying that industries are more closely correlated with GDP in more financially developed countries. At the firm level, short-term debt is negatively correlated with output as financial development increases, suggesting that debt is used in a countercyclical way to stabilize production. The results indicate that financial ...
International risk-taking, volatility, and consumption growth
We show that countries that take on more international risk are rewarded with higher expected consumption growth. International risk is defined as the beta of a country's consumption growth with world consumption growth. High-beta countries hold more foreign assets, as predicted by the theory. Despite the positive effects of beta, a country's idiosyncratic volatility is negatively correlated with expected consumption growth. Therefore, uninsured shocks affect not only current growth, but also future consumption growth. High-volatility countries have worse net foreign asset positions, ...
Supply matters for asset prices: evidence from IPOs in emerging markets
We show that the introduction of a new asset affects the prices of previously existing assets in a market. Using data from 254 IPOs in emerging markets, we find that stocks in industries that covary highly with the industry of the IPO experience a larger decline in prices relative to other stocks during the month of the IPO. The effects are stronger when the IPO is issued in a market that is less integrated internationally, and when the IPO is big. The evidence supports the idea that the composition of asset supply affects the cross-section of stock prices.
The stock market and cross country differences in relative prices
This paper studies the impact of stock market development on cross country relative prices (the real exchange rate). A nonlinear relationship is uncovered in the cross section: prices and the stock market increase together in the beginning; then prices fall as the stock market continues to develop. In fact, among rich countries the relationship between prices and the stock market is negative. This result obtains after controlling for per capita income and for endogeneity issues by using legal origins. A small open economy model is presented to explain the connection between stock market ...
Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow?
Movements in the value of corporate assets are justified by changes in expected future cash flow. The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. When discount rates are low and equity issuance is high, expected cash-flow growth is low because firms repurchase debt to offset equity issuance. A variance decomposition of the ratio of net payout reveals little transitory variation in discount rates that is not offset by common variation with expected cashflow growth.