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Author:Kumar, Anil 

Journal Article
Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Provided Much-Needed Fiscal Support

Recent analysis suggests that enhanced unemployment insurance benefits implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have helped buttress spending among the unemployed and supported state and local economies. Their economic impact in Texas relative to the nation has been constrained by lower levels of participation in the unemployment aid programs and more modest per-capita payments from them.
Southwest Economy , Issue Fourth Quarter

Working Paper
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data

Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term vs. long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure ...
Working Papers , Paper 1409

Journal Article
Wage flexibility in Texas may ease impact of tighter monetary policy

Because wages are more flexible in Texas than in other parts of the U.S., the state?s unemployment rate will be less prone to rise when interest rates increase.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q3 , Pages 3-7

Journal Article
Did home equity restrictions help keep Texas mortgages from going underwater?

With relatively stable house prices in Texas, the incidence of underwater mortgages was a fraction of what occurred in hard-hit states.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q3 , Pages 3-7

Journal Article
Globalizing Texas: exports and high-tech jobs

Southwest Economy , Issue Sep , Pages 11-14

Journal Article
Strength of economy, limited benefit eligibility in Texas curb long-term unemployment rate

An unemployment rate with a persistent long-term component can be more detrimental to the economy than the same jobless rate with a smaller share of long-term unemployed.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 3-20

Blog
Texas Jobs Decline at Historic Pace from Impact of COVID-19

The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Financial literacy and mortgage equity withdrawals

The recent U.S. consumption boom and the subsequent surge in mortgage defaults have been linked to mortgage equity withdrawals (MEWs). MEWs are correlated with covariates consistent with a permanent income framework augmented for credit-constraints. Nevertheless, many households are financially illiterate. We assess the unexplored linkages between ?active MEW? and measures of financial literacy using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Findings indicate that declines in mortgage interest rates encouraged MEWs. Nevertheless, financially illiterate households were ...
Working Papers , Paper 1110

Working Paper
Do restrictions on home equity extraction contribute to lower mortgage defaults? evidence from a policy discontinuity at the Texas’ border

Texas is the only US state that limits home equity borrowing to 80 percent of home value. This paper exploits this policy discontinuity around the Texas? interstate borders and uses a multidimensional regression discontinuity design framework to find that limits on home equity borrowing in Texas lowered the likelihood of mortgage default by about 1 percentage point for all mortgages and 2-4 percentage points for nonprime mortgages. Estimated nonprime mortgage default hazards within 25 to 100 miles on either side of the Texas? border are about 15 percent smaller as one crosses into Texas.
Working Papers , Paper 1410

Cost of Texas’ 2021 Deep Freeze Justifies Weatherization

Our analysis indicates winterizing for extreme winter weather events appears financially reasonable.
Dallas Fed Economics

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