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Author:Kumar, Anil 

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Labor Economy at Greater Risk in Texas than U.S. During COVID-19 Crisis

The coronavirus crisis could more adversely affect the Texas economy than the U.S. economy due to the state’s relatively large share of at-risk jobs, a review of data suggests.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Do restrictions on home equity extraction contribute to lower mortgage defaults? evidence from a policy discontinuity at the Texas’ border

Texas is the only US state that limits home equity borrowing to 80 percent of home value. This paper exploits this policy discontinuity around the Texas? interstate borders and uses a multidimensional regression discontinuity design framework to find that limits on home equity borrowing in Texas lowered the likelihood of mortgage default by about 1 percentage point for all mortgages and 2-4 percentage points for nonprime mortgages. Estimated nonprime mortgage default hazards within 25 to 100 miles on either side of the Texas? border are about 15 percent smaller as one crosses into Texas.
Working Papers , Paper 1410

Working Paper
Estimating Taxable Income Responses with Elasticity Heterogeneity

We extend a standard taxable income model with its typical functional-form assumptions to account for nonlinear budget sets. We propose a new method to estimate taxable income elasticity that is more policy relevant than the typically estimated elasticity based on linearized budget sets. Using U.S. data from the NBER tax panel for 1979-1990 and differencing methods, we estimate an elasticity of 0.75 for taxable income and 0.20 for broad income. These estimates are higher than those obtained by specifications based on linearization. Our approach offers a new way to address the problem of ...
Working Papers , Paper 1611

Working Paper
Declining female labor supply elasticities in the U.S. and implications for tax policy: evidence from panel data

Recent work has provided compelling evidence of a long-term decline in US female labor supply elasticities with respect to wages and to income. While previous work used cross-sectional data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we reexamine the trend for married women using panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1980 to 2006. We find evidence in support of a long-term decline in married females? labor supply elasticities on the participation margin, but less so on the hours margin. We also extend the analysis to investigating the implications of these results on ...
Working Papers , Paper 1501

Working Paper
Financial literacy and mortgage equity withdrawals

The recent U.S. consumption boom and the subsequent surge in mortgage defaults have been linked to mortgage equity withdrawals (MEWs). MEWs are correlated with covariates consistent with a permanent income framework augmented for credit-constraints. Nevertheless, many households are financially illiterate. We assess the unexplored linkages between ?active MEW? and measures of financial literacy using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Findings indicate that declines in mortgage interest rates encouraged MEWs. Nevertheless, financially illiterate households were ...
Working Papers , Paper 1110

Working Paper
The elasticity of intertemporal substitution: new evidence from 401(k) participation

A key parameter in economics is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS), which measures the extent to which consumers shift total expenditures across time in response to changes in the effective rate of return. In contrast to the previous literature, which primarily has relied on Euler equation methods and generated a wide range of estimates, we show how a life-cycle-consistent econometric specification of employee 401(k) participation along with plausibly exogenous variation in rates of return due to employer matching contributions can be used to generate new estimates of the EIS. ...
Working Papers , Paper 0812

Working Paper
Employer matching and 401 (k) participation: evidence from the health and retirement study

Employer matching of employee 401(k) contributions can provide a powerful incentive to save for retirement and is a key component in pension-plan design in the United States. Using detailed administrative contribution, earnings, and pension-plan data from the Health and Retirement Study, this analysis formulates a life-cycle-consistent discrete choice regression model of 401(k) participation and estimates the determinants of participation accounting for non-linearities in the household budget set induced by matching. The estimates indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per ...
Working Papers , Paper 0601

Working Paper
Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income?

Almost all recent literature on Medicaid and labor supply has used Affordable Care Act (ACA)-induced Medicaid eligibility expansions in various states as natural experiments. Estimated effects on employment and earnings differ widely due to differences in the scope of eligibility expansion across states and are potentially subject to biases due to policy endogeneity. Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income. Both state-level data and March CPS data from ...
Working Papers , Paper 1709

Working Paper
Nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply

Econometric models with nonlinear budgets sets frequently arise in the study of impact of taxation on labor supply. Blomquist and Newey (2002) have suggested a nonparametric method to estimate the uncompensated wage and income effects when the budget set is nonlinear. This paper extends their nonparametric estimation method to censored dependent variables. The modified method is applied to estimate female wage and income elasticities using the 1987 PSID. I find evidence of bias if the nonlinearity in the budget set is ignored. The median compensated elasticity is estimated at 1.19 (with a ...
Working Papers , Paper 0505

Working Paper
Lifecycle consistent estimation of effect of taxes on female labor supply in the US: evidence from panel data

Very few existing studies have estimated female labor supply elasticities using a U.S. panel data set, though cross-sectional studies abound. Also, most existing studies have modeled female labor supply in the U.S. in a static framework. I make an attempt to fill the gap in this literature, by estimating a lifecycle-consistent specification with taxes, in a limited dependent variable framework, on a panel of married females from the PSID. Both parametric random effects and semiparametric fixed effects methods are applied. The estimate of compensated elasticity for females in the sample is ...
Working Papers , Paper 0504

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