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Journal Article
Restoring generational balance in U.S. fiscal policy: what will it take?
A study of the magnitudes of tax increases, transfer cuts, or reductions in government purchases that would be needed to rectify the huge imbalance in the generational stance of U.S. fiscal policy, concluding that congressionally proposed outlay reductions in nondefense and non-Social Security spending would still be insufficient to bridge the gap.
Working Paper
The mismatch between life insurance holdings and financial vulnerabilities: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Using the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances and an elaborate lifecycle model, we quantify the potential financial impact of each individual?s death on his or her survivors, and we measure the degree to which life insurance moderates these consequences. Life insurance is essentially uncorrelated with financial vulnerability at every stage of the life cycle. As a result, the impact of insurance among at-risk households is modest, and substantial uninsured vulnerabilities are widespread, particularly among younger couples. Roughly two-thirds of poverty among surviving women and more than ...
Working Paper
The annuitization of Americans' resources: a cohort analysis
An analysis of the changes since 1960 in the share of Americans' resources that are annuitized, which has declined slightly for younger Americans but has risen dramatically for the elderly, with important implications for the national saving rate and income inequality.
Working Paper
Understanding the postwar decline in United States saving: a cohort analysis
An analysis of the postwar decline in U.S. national saving that decomposes changes in the net national saving rate into those due to changes in cohort-specific consumption propensities, the intergenerational distribution of resources, the rate of government spending, and demographics. ; A review and expansion of Calomiris, Kahn, and Longhofer's (1994) cultural affinity theory of discrimination in the residential mortgage market, which is based on the idea that lenders find it easier or less costly to evaluate the creditworthiness of applicants with whom they have a common experiential ...
Discussion Paper
Risk-sharing, altruism, and the factor structure of consumption
We consider four models of consumption that differ with respect to efficient risk-sharing and altruism. They range from complete markets with altruism to family risk-sharing. We use a matched sample of parents and independent children available from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to discriminate between the four models. Our testing procedure is designed to deal with the set of observed independent children being endogenously selected. The combined hypothesis of complete markets and altruism can be decisively rejected, while we fail to reject altruism and hence family risk-sharing for a ...
Journal Article
Generational accounts and lifetime tax rates, 1900-1991
An update of the baseline generational accounts reported in the 1993 federal budget that extends the analysis to lifetime net tax rates--the taxes that a generation pays, less the Social Security and other transfer benefits that it receives, as a share of income over its entire lifetime.
Conference Paper
Comments on \\"Understanding global imbalances\\" by Richard Cooper
In short, Cooper tells us not to worry about our current account or its underlying causes. I have a much darker and, I believe, more accurate view of our current account deficit. While I agree with much of what Cooper says, I disagree most strongly with his central thesis that the current account portends no major problem. To the contrary, the current account is symptomatic of a longterm generational policy that has been slowly, but surely driving our nation broke. When the last straw hits the camel?s back, which could happen any day now, we?re going to see the bond and stock markets crash, ...
Working Paper
Does participating in a 401(k) raise your lifetime taxes?
Contributing to 401(k)-type plans lowers current taxes, but does it lower lifetime taxes? If tax rates were independent of income and remained constant through time, the answer would be an unambiguous ?yes.? But tax rates may be higher when retirement account withdrawals occur, either because one moves into higher marginal tax brackets or because the government raises tax rates. Moreover, reducing tax brackets when young in exchange for higher tax brackets when old renders mortgage deductions less valuable. Most importantly, shifting taxable income from youth to old age can substantially ...
Working Paper
Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving
An application of generational accounting to fiscal policies that feature intergenerational redistribution. The authors consider different policies, only some of which show up as a change in the deficit, and explore their impact on the net national saving rate.