Getting a Jump on Inflation
Accurate official estimates of Fed policymakers? preferred PCE inflation measure take months, and sometimes years, to become available. A small set of timelier indicators offers realtime power to ?nowcast? PCE inflation. Those indicators provide as much accuracy as initial government estimates and remain informative even after official estimates have been published.
New economy, new recession
A fresh look at the national economy
Should high gold prices be a source of concern?
Is there an output-inflation trade-off?
Corporate Tax Reform: Potential Gains at a Price to Some
Corporate tax reform has become a high-profile issue amid fears that firms are increasingly taking their headquarters and production facilities offshore and booking profits abroad. Adjustments to the tax system can help address these factors, though not without potentially introducing new issues.
All in the family: the close connection between nominal-GDP targeting and the Taylor Rule
The classic Taylor rule for adjusting the stance of monetary policy is formally a special case of nominal- gross-domestic-product (GDP) targeting. Suitably implemented, moreover, nominal-GDP targeting satisfies the definition of a "flexible inflation targeting" policy rule. However, nominal-GDP targeting would require more discipline from policymakers than some analysts think is realistic.
Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis
We undertake a real-time VAR analysis of the usefulness of the term spread, the junk-bond spread, the ISM's New Orders Index, and broker/dealer equity for predicting growth in non-farm employment. To get around the "apples and oranges" problem described by Koenig, Dolmas and Piger (2003), we augment each VAR we consider with a flexible state-space model of employment revisions. This methodology produces jobs forecasts consistently superior to those obtained using conventional VAR analysis. They are also superior to Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts and to median forecasts from the Survey ...