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Discussion Paper
High Unemployment and Disinflation in the Euro Area Periphery Countries
Klitgaard, Thomas; Peck, Richard (2014-07-14)
Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence in unemployment rates among euro area member countries since the monetary union was founded in 1999. The pronounced differences in economic performances of euro area countries since 2008 should have led to significant differences in price behavior. That turned out to be the case, with a strong correlation evident between ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140714a

Discussion Paper
Recycling Oil Revenue
Klitgaard, Thomas; Fosco, Michael (2018-05-14)
Almost half the U.S. merchandise trade deficit was tied to petroleum ten years ago. Oil prices were above $100 a barrel, the economy was doing well enough that oil consumption was growing despite high oil prices, and domestic oil production was falling. The U.S. petroleum trade balance has since narrowed substantially from $400 billion in 2008 to under $65 billion in 2017 as a result of lower oil prices, higher domestic production, and a prolonged period of flat-to-falling petroleum consumption. Going forward, the changes in domestic production and consumption have significantly moderated the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180514

Discussion Paper
How Much Have Consumers Spent on Imports during the Pandemic?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2021-10-22)
The return of U.S. real GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year was driven by consumer spending on goods. Such spending was well above its pre-pandemic path, while spending on services was well below. Despite the surge in goods spending, domestic manufacturing has increased only modestly, leaving most of the increase in demand being filled by imports. While higher imports have been a drag on growth, the size of this drag has been moderated by the value created by the domestic transportation, wholesale, and retail sectors in selling these goods. Going forward, a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211022

Report
U.S. imports in the 1980s: some insights from a disaggregate analysis
Klitgaard, Thomas (1992)
Research Paper , Paper 9210

Discussion Paper
Japan’s Experience with Yield Curve Control
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-06-22)
In September 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) changed its policy framework to target the yield on ten-year government bonds at “around zero percent,” close to the prevailing rate at the time. The new framework was announced as a modification of the Bank's earlier policy of rapid monetary base expansion via large-scale asset purchases—a policy that market participants increasingly regarded as unsustainable. While the BoJ announced that the rapid pace of government bond purchases would not change, it turned out that the yield target approach allowed for a dramatic scaling back in purchases. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200622

Discussion Paper
Capital Flight inside the Euro Area: Cooling Off a Fire Sale
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2013-10-02)
Countries in the euro area periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain saw large-scale capital flight in 2011 and the first half of 2012. While events unfolded much like a balance of payments crisis, the contraction in domestic credit was less severe than would ordinarily be caused by capital flight of this scale. Why was that? An important reason is that much of the capital flight was financed by credits to deficit countries? central banks, with those credits extended collectively by other central banks in the euro area. This balance of payments financing was paired with policies to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131002

Discussion Paper
Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Fund Its Larger Budget Deficit?
Wang, Linda; Klitgaard, Thomas (2018-11-28)
The federal tax cut and the increase in federal spending at the beginning of 2018 substantially increased the government deficit, requiring a jump in the amount of Treasury securities needed to fund the gap. One question is whether the government will have to rely on foreign investors to buy these securities. Data for the first half of 2018 are available and, so far, the country has not had to increase the pace of borrowing from abroad. The current account balance, which measures how much the United States borrows from the rest of the world, has been essentially unchanged. Instead, the tax ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181128

Discussion Paper
Do Asset Purchase Programs Push Capital Abroad?
Lucca, David O.; Klitgaard, Thomas (2015-08-12)
Euro area sovereign bond yields fell to record lows and the euro weakened after the European Central Bank (ECB) dramatically expanded its asset purchase program in early 2015. Some analysts predicted massive financial outflows spilling out of the euro area and affecting global markets as investors sought higher yields abroad. These arguments ignore balance of payments accounting, which requires any financial outflow from the euro area to be matched by a similar-sized inflow, absent a quick and substantial current account improvement. The focus on cross-border financial flows also is misguided ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150812

Journal Article
Space age monetary theory
Klitgaard, Thomas (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Recycling petrodollars
Lerman, Robert; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2006-12)
In recent years, oil-exporting countries have experienced windfall gains with the rise in the price of oil. A look at how oil exporters "recycle" their revenues reveals that roughly half of the petrodollar windfall has gone to purchase foreign goods, especially from Europe and China, while the remainder has been invested in foreign assets. Although it is difficult to determine where the funds are first invested, the evidence suggests that the bulk are ending up, directly or indirectly, in the United States.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue Dec

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