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Journal Article
Gauging Market Responses to Monetary Policy Communication
The modern model of central bank communication suggests that central bankers prefer to err on the side of saying too much rather than too little. The reason is that most central bankers believe that clear and concise communication of monetary policy helps achieve their goals. For the Federal Reserve, this means to achieve its goals of price stability, maximum employment, and stable long-term interest rates. This article examines the various dimensions of Fed communication with the public and financial markets and how Fed communication with the public has evolved over time. We use daily and ...
Journal Article
Models and monetary policy: more science than art?
It has been said that, "forecasters may never be right, but they are never in doubt." Not with a good model by their side, that is.
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone
Using Data to Show When Recessions End
Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
Journal Article
Despite setbacks, the U.S. economy steams forward
Working Paper
Productivity measurement and monetary policymaking during the 1990s
The acceleration of productivity growth during the latter half of the 1990s was both the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the conflict between incoming aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence which hinted at an acceleration. Some FOMC members feared an overheating economy and higher inflation; others, including the Chairman, argued that revolutionary increases in productivity were occurring and the Committee should not prematurely ...
Working Paper
Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks during the financial crisis, 2007-10
Numerous commentaries have questioned both the legality and appropriateness of Federal Reserve lending to banks during the recent financial crisis. This article addresses two questions motivated by such commentary: 1) Did the Federal Reserve violate either the letter or spirit of the law by lending to undercapitalized banks? 2) Did Federal Reserve credit constitute a large fraction of the deposit liabilities of failed banks during their last year prior to failure? The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA) imposed limits on the number of days that the Federal ...
Journal Article
Commercial real estate: a drag for some banks but maybe not for U.S. economy
Community banks seem to have the most to fear about the state of commercial real estate today. The problems with these loans, however, shouldn't derail the entire economy.
Journal Article
Follow regional agricultural financial conditions with new quarterly survey
The St. Louis Fed?s Agricultural Finance Monitor quarterly reports on regional agricultural financial conditions, as well as bankers? expectations of farmland values, farm loan repayment rates, required collateral, farm loan interest rates and credit supply and demand.
Journal Article
The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement
The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors ...