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Author:Irvine, F. Owen 

Working Paper
Empirical evidence on the formation of sales expectations by manufacturers

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 18

Working Paper
Automobile demand by size, class and gasoline conservation

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 7

Working Paper
A study of automobile inventory investment

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 6

Working Paper
Test of the rationality and accuracy of manufacturers' sales expectations

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 8

Working Paper
Merchant wholesaler inventory investment and the cost of capital

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 9

Working Paper
The response of inventories to inflation and interest rate fluctuations, a critique and survey

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 10

Working Paper
Specification errors and the stock-adjustment model: why estimated speeds-of-adjustment are too slow in inventory equations

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 14

Working Paper
Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence

As has been widely observed, the volatility of GDP has declined since the mid-1980s compared with prior years. One leading explanation for this decline is that monetary policy improved significantly in the later period. We utilize a cross-section of 2-digit manufacturing and trade industries to further investigate this explanation. Since a major channel through which monetary policy operates is variation in the federal funds rate, we hypothesized that industries that are more interest sensitive should have experienced larger declines in the variance of their outputs in the post-1983 period. ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-4

Working Paper
Sales persistence and the reductions in GDP volatility

A number of explanations for the observed decline in GDP volatility since the mid-1980s have been offered. Valerie Ramey and Daniel Vine (2003a, 2003b) in a couple of recent papers offer the hypothesis that a decline in the persistence of sales is an explanation for the decline in GDP volatility. Their models show that a decrease in sales persistence leads to a decline in the variance of production relative to the variance of sales. They provide econometric evidence that the persistence of unit automobile sales has declined at both the aggregate and model level. This paper explores reasons ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-5

Working Paper
The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility

Most of the reduction in GDP volatility since the 1983 is accounted for by a decline in comovement of output among industries that hold inventories. This decline is not simply a passive byproduct of reduced volatility in common factors or shocks. Instead, structural changes occurred in the long-run and dynamic relationships among industries? sales and inventory investment behavior?especially in the automobile and related industries, which are linked by supply and distribution chains featuring new production and inventory management techniques. Using a HAVAR model (Fratantoni and Schuh 2003) ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-9