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Author:Ireland, Peter N. 

Working Paper
The monetary transmission mechanism

The monetary transmission mechanism describes how policy-induced changes in the nominal money stock or the short-term nominal interest rate impact real variables such as aggregate output and employment. Specific channels of monetary transmission operate through the effects that monetary policy has on interest rates, exchange rates, equity and real estate prices, bank lending, and firm balance sheets. Recent research on the transmission mechanism seeks to understand how these channels work in the context of dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium models.
Working Papers , Paper 06-1

Journal Article
Using the permanent income hypothesis for forecasting

Economic Quarterly , Issue Win , Pages 49-63

Journal Article
Financial evolution and the long-run behavior of velocity : new evidence from U.S. regional data

Innovations in the private financial sector influence the income velocity of money in an economy over the entire course of its development. In the early stages of growth, increased monetization, as manifested by the spread of the banking system, causes velocity to fall. Later, the emergence of nonbank financial intermediaries causes velocity to rise. Evidence of these patterns is found in regional demand deposit data from the United States.
Economic Review , Volume 77 , Issue Nov , Pages 16-26

Working Paper
Customer flows, countercyclical markups, and the persistent effects of monetary shocks

This paper develops a general equilibrium model in which households face fixed costs associated with searching for a new supplier of consumption goods. These search costs provide firms with some monopoly power over their existing customers and generate the kind of customer flow dynamics first considered by Phelps and Winter. Customer flows, in turn, cause markups of price over marginal cost to vary countercyclically, both amplify and propagate the effects of technology shocks on output, and allow the effects of monetary shocks on output to persist.
Working Paper , Paper 95-04

Working Paper
Endogenous financial innovation and the demand for money

This paper embeds two key ideas about the nature of financial innovation taken from the empirical literature into a familiar equilibrium monetary model. It provides formal support for several alternative econometric specifications for money demand that attempt to capture the effects of financial innovation and demonstrates that a popular theoretical model of money demand, when suitably modified, can account for some unusual monetary dynamics found in the data. Thus, it helps to establish both the theoretical relevance of recent empirical work and the empirical relevance of recent theoretical ...
Working Paper , Paper 92-03

Working Paper
Implementing the Friedman rule

In cash-in-advance models, necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium with zero nominal interest rates and Pareto-optimal allocations restrict only the very long-run, or asymptotic, behavior of the money supply. When these asymptotic conditions are satisfied, they leave the central bank with a great deal of flexibility to manage the money supply over any finite horizon. But what happens when these asymptotic conditions fail to hold? This paper shows that the central bank can still implement the Friedman rule if its actions are appropriately constrained in the ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0012

Working Paper
Stopping inflations, big and small

Previous studies of disinflation work with models in which firms use time-dependent strategies, changing nominal prices at intervals of fixed length. These models may be criticized for failing to allow pricing behavior to adjust after a large shift in policy regime. Consequently, this paper develops a model that allows firms to adopt strategies that are partially state-dependent, changing nominal prices whenever they deviate sufficiently from their target values. The paper uses this model to examine how the welfare costs and benefits of disinflation vary with the initial inflation rate and ...
Working Paper , Paper 96-01

Working Paper
Irrational expectations and econometric practice: discussion of Orphanides and Williams, \"Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy\"

Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams' excellent conference paper, "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," contributes importantly to the new and rapidly growing branch of the literature on bounded rationality and learning in macroeconomics. Their paper, like many others, derives interesting and useful theoretical results that show how the introduction of bounded rationality and learning impacts on the effects of monetary policy shocks and the characteristics of optimal monetary policy rules. This note suggests that some additional empirical work-some "irrational ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-22

Conference Paper
Stopping inflations, big and small

Proceedings

Journal Article
Forecasting the effects of reduced defense spending

Forecasts from a vector autoregressive model indicate that the substantial cuts in defense spending proposed by the Bush Administration in 1991 are likely to reduce GNP in both the short run and the long run. These forecasts hold even if proceeds from the spending cuts are used to reduce the federal debt. The long-range VAR forecasts, in particular, contrast markedly with those of the large-scale econometric models employed by the Congressional Budget Office.
Economic Review , Volume 78 , Issue Nov , Pages 3-11

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