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Money, income, prices and interest rates: a comment
Commodity prices and inflation
This study examines the empirical relationship between changes in commodity prices and inflation by looking at the performance of non-oil commodity prices as stand-alone indicators of inflation and in conjunction with other leading indicators of inflation. The results indicate that the empirical link between commodity prices and inflation has changed dramatically over time. Commodity prices were relatively strong and statistically robust leading indicators of overall inflation during the 1970s and early 1980s, but they have been poor stand-alone indicators of inflation since the early ...
Using monthly data to predict quarterly output
Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.
District economic developments