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Journal Article
How Have Banks Been Managing the Composition of High-Quality Liquid Assets?
Banks? liquidity management practices are fundamental to understanding the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, these practices have been shaped importantly by the liquidity coverage ratio requirement. Given the lack of public data on how banks have been meeting this requirement, we construct estimates of U.S. banks? high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) and examine how banks have managed these assets since the crisis. We find that banks have adopted a wide range of HQLA compositions and show that this empirical finding is consistent ...
Working Paper
The effect of markups on the exchange rate exposure of stock returns
This paper examines how to properly specify and test for factors that affect the exchange-rate exposure of stock returns. We develop a theoretical model, which explicitly identifies three channels of exposure. An industry's exposure increases (1) by greater competitiveness in the market where its final output is sold, (2) the interaction of greater competitiveness in its export market and a larger share of exports in production and, (3) the interaction of less competitiveness in its imported input market and the smaller the share of imports in production. Using a sample of 82 U.S. ...
Working Paper
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet: a primer and projections
Over the past few years, the Federal Reserve's use of unconventional monetary policy tools has led it to hold a large portfolio of securities. The securities holdings in excess of historical norms have been shown to be putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates. One question asked is how long this unusual amount of monetary policy accommodation will be in place. Here we provide projections of the evolution of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet that are consistent with public economic forecasts and announced Federal Open Market Committee policy principles to help answer this ...
Discussion Paper
Implementing Monetary Policy in an "Ample-Reserves" Regime: The Basics (Note 1 of 3)
The FOMC has stated that it intends to continue implementing monetary policy in a regime with an ample supply of reserves. This Note, the first in a three-part series, provides an introductory discussion of what it means to implement policy in such a regime and how the Fed ensures interest rate control in an environment with an ample supply of reserves in the banking system.
Working Paper
Monetary Policy 101: A Primer on the Fed's Changing Approach to Policy Implementation
The Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy in order to achieve its statutory mandate of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates as prescribed by the Congress and laid out in the Federal Reserve Act. For many years prior to the financial crisis, the FOMC set a target for the federal funds rate and achieved that target through purchases and sales of securities in the open market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a superabundant level of reserve balances in the banking system having been created as a result of the Federal Reserve's large scale ...
Working Paper
How Have Banks Been Managing the Composition of High-Quality Liquid Assets?
We study banks' post-crisis liquidity management. We construct time series of U.S. banks' holdings of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) and examine how these assets have been managed in recent years to comply with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirement. We find that, in becoming LCR compliant, banks initially ramped up their stock of reserve balances. However, once the requirement was met, some banks subsequently shifted the compositions of their liquid portfolios significantly. This raises the question: What drives the compositions of banks? HQLA? We show that a risk-return framework ...
Discussion Paper
Projected Evolution of the SOMA Portfolio and the 10-Year Treasury Term Premium Effect
An earlier Feds note used staff models to provide a projection for the evolution of the SOMA portfolio and an estimate of the associated term premium effect (TPE) on the 10-year Treasury yield. That analysis relied on economic, financial, and monetary policy assumptions as of April 2017. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcing a change in its reinvestment policy in its September 2017 post-meeting statement, this note provides updated projections.
Working Paper
The Federal Reserve's Portfolio and its Effect on Interest Rates
We explore the historical composition of the Federal Reserve's Treasury portfolio and its effect on Treasury yields. Using data from 1985 to 2016, we show that the divergence of the composition of the Federal Reserve's portfolio from overall Treasury securities outstanding is associated with a statistically significant effect on interest rates. In aggregate, when the Federal Reserve's portfolio has shorter maturity than overall Treasury debt outstanding, measures of the term premium are higher at all horizons; likewise, when the Federal Reserve's portfolio has longer maturity, term premiums ...
Working Paper
Modeling direct investment valuation adjustments and estimating quarterly positions
This paper takes an in-depth look at U.S. direct investment valuation adjustments. We develop a methodology to generate valuation adjustments at the quarterly frequency, which can be combined with the Bureau of Economic Analysis's quarterly direct investment flows to obtain quarterly estimates of direct investment assets and liabilities. Our methodology involves two steps. First, we estimate valuation adjustment models with annual data. Our models rely on variables that reflect terms used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in their data construction: exchange-rate changes, changes in the ...
Working Paper
Expectations about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the term structure of interest rates
This paper provides a systematic assessment of the effect of the Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs on Treasury yields, with particular emphasis on the role of market expectations about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and of interest rates on the impact of the programs. We construct measures of such market expectations based on Blue Chip survey forecasts, Congressional Budget Office projections, and information from formal FOMC communications. Those measures are combined with a no-arbitrage term structure model, in which yields are driven by current and expected ...