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Author:Ihrig, Jane E. 

The Rise (and Fall) of Inflation During the Early 2020s

Inflation has been on many people’s minds. There are several measures of inflation available, and each one plays a role in providing a more complete understanding of inflation’s causes and effects. This Page One Economics® Econ Primer describes key measures of inflation, including the consumer price index, and how the Federal Open Market Committee pays particular attention to these measures as it makes policy decisions—adjusting its policy stance when necessary to move the economy toward maximum employment and price stability.
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Working Paper
Expectations about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the term structure of interest rates

This paper provides a systematic assessment of the effect of the Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs on Treasury yields, with particular emphasis on the role of market expectations about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and of interest rates on the impact of the programs. We construct measures of such market expectations based on Blue Chip survey forecasts, Congressional Budget Office projections, and information from formal FOMC communications. Those measures are combined with a no-arbitrage term structure model, in which yields are driven by current and expected ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2012-57

Working Paper
The dynamics of informal employment

The informal sector, which produces legal goods but does not comply with government regulations, is a functioning part of all economies, with a proportion of the labor force ranging from 17 percent in OECD countries to 60 percent in developing countries. Using a dynamic model that includes an informal sector, this paper illustrates the natural dynamics of the sector, describes how tax policy affects its size, and quantifies the costs of having it. Simulations yield movements in informal employment and output consistent with empirical observations. We find that the U.S. informal sector ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 664

Working Paper
Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through

Recent research suggests that the pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation has declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in pass-through (defined as the correlation of inflation with exchange rate changes) to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on eleven industrial countries between 1971 and 2000. We find widespread evidence of both a decline in pass-through and a decline in the variability of inflation in the 1990s. We also find a statistically ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 704

Working Paper
The Fed’s “Ample-Reserves” Approach to Implementing Monetary Policy

We describe the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) approach to implementing monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime. We use a stylized model to explain the factors the Fed considers and the tools it uses to ensure interest rate control when the quantity of reserves is ample. Then, we take a close look at the Fed’s experience operating in this regime in the post-crisis period, both as it has raised and lowered its policy rate. Looking ahead, we highlight some considerations relevant for maintaining a level of reserves consistent with the efficient and effective implementation of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-022

Working Paper
Exchange-rate exposure of multinationals: focusing on exchange-rate issues

This paper examines exchange-rate exposure of multinationals (MNEs) in light of detailed exchange rate data. Specifically, using MNE-specific exchange rates and accounting for the possibility that exchange-rate crises may impact a firm differently than periods of normal fluctuations, estimates suggest 1/4 of all MNEs had significant exchange rate exposure between 1995 and 1999. On average, significant exposure is estimated to be 0.68, indicating that a firm's monthly return falls, on average, by 0.68 percentage points when the dollar appreciates one percent. This encompasses periods where ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 709

Discussion Paper
What Happened in Money Markets after the Fed's December Rate Increase?

At its December 2015 meeting, the Fed's policymaking committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, the first increase in the policy rate since June 2006.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2016-02-22

Discussion Paper
How Dynamic is Bank Liquidity, Including when the COVID-19 Pandemic First Set In?

Banks need sufficient liquidity—cash and other assets that may be easily and immediately converted into cash—to meet their financial obligations, such as when households withdraw deposits or businesses tap credit lines. One key takeaway from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 was that continuity of bank intermediation is particularly important in times of stress to limit pressure on the financial system, and that banks need to consistently maintain sufficient liquidity to achieve that outcome.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-08-30-1

Discussion Paper
How Have the Fed's Three Rate Hikes Passed Through to Selected Short-term Interest Rates?

Since December 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has increased the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points three times, bringing the target range from 0 to 25 basis points in late 2015 to 75 to 100 basis points in March 2017. This Note examines how this cumulative 75 basis point increase in the target range for the Fed's policy rate has transmitted to other short-term interest rates.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-06-02

Working Paper
An empirical analysis of inflation in OECD countries

One of the most remarkable macroeconomic developments of the past decade has been the widespread decline in inflation despite declines in unemployment rates. For the United States, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of three factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity, (2) structural changes in labor markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU), and (3) improved credibility of monetary policy. Here we ask whether comparable factors were at work in foreign industrial countries. To address this question, we empirically characterize the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 765


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