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Author:Huang, Kevin X. D. 

Working Paper
Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence and Applications

This paper studies the empirical relevance of temptation and self-control using household-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. We construct an infinite-horizon consumption-savings model that allows, but does not require, temptation and self-control in preferences. In the presence of temptation, a wealth-consumption ratio, in addition to consumption growth, becomes a determinant of the asset-pricing kernel, and the importance of this additional pricing factor depends on the strength of temptation. To identify the presence of temptation, we exploit an implication of the theory that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-23

Working Paper
Aggregate consumption-wealth ratio and the cross-section of stock returns: some international evidence

We find that the short-term deviations from long-run consumption-wealth relationship (cay) forecast stock market returns and serve as a conditioning variable in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for explaining the cross-section of stock returns for the United Kingdom and Japan. Our cross-sectional regressions using cay as a conditioning variable as opposed to using an alternative variable, tay, constructed using calendar time in place of consumption indicate that it is unlikely to be a spurious variable and provides useful information concerning the economic fundamentals. We show that ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 04-07

Working Paper
Production interdependence and welfare

The international welfare effects of a country?s monetary policy shocks have been controversial in the literature. While a unilateral monetary expansion increases the production efficiency in each country, it affects terms of trade in favor of one country against another depending on the currencies of price setting. We show that the increased world production interdependence magnifies the efficiency-improvement effect while dampening the terms-of-trade effect. As a consequence, a unilateral monetary expansion can be mutually beneficial and thus Pareto improving regardless of in which currency ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 04-04

Working Paper
Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Tool for Capital Account Management

Many recent theoretical papers have argued that countries can insulate themselves from volatile world capital flows by using a variable tax on foreign capital as an instrument of monetary policy. But at the same time many empirical papers have argued that only rarely do we observe these cyclical capital taxes used in practice. In this paper we construct a small open economy model where the central bank can engage in sterilized foreign exchange intervention. When private agents can freely buy and sell foreign bonds, sterilized foreign exchange intervention has no effect. But we analytically ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 352

Working Paper
Why does the cyclical behavior of real wages change over time?

This paper seeks to understand the evolution of the cyclical behavior of U.S. real wage rates from the interwar period to the post World War II period using a dynamic general equilibrium model that emphasizes demand-driven business cycle fluctuations. In the model, changes in the cyclical behavior of real wages arise endogenously from the interactions between nominal wage and price rigidities and an evolving input-output structure.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 02-09

Working Paper
Optimal monetary policy under financial sector risk

We consider whether or not a central bank should respond directly to financial market conditions when setting monetary policy. Specifically, should a central bank put weight on interbank lending spreads in its Taylor rule policy function? ; Using a model with risk and balance sheet effects in both the real and financial sectors (Davis, "The Adverse Feedback Loop and the Effects of Risk in the both the Real and Financial Sectors" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 66, November 2010) we find that when the conventional parameters in ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 85

Working Paper
Financial intermediaries, markets, and growth

In many models of financial intermediation, markets reduce welfare because they limit the amount of risk-sharing intermediaries can offer. In this paper we study a model in which markets also promote investment in a productive technology. A trade-off between risk sharing and growth arises endogenously. In the model, financial intermediaries provide insurance to households against a liquidity shock. Households can also invest directly on a financial market if they pay a cost. In equilibrium, the ability of intermediaries to share risk is constrained by the market. This can be beneficial ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 04-02

Working Paper
Capital and macroeconomic instability in a discrete-time model with forward-looking interest rate rules

The authors establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for local real determinacy in a discrete-time production economy with monopolistic competition and a quadratic price adjustment cost under forward-looking policy rules, for the case where capital is in exogenously fixed supply and the case with endogenous capital accumulation. Using these conditions, they show that (i) indeterminacy is more likely to occur with a greater share of payment to capital in value-added production cost; (ii) indeterminacy can be more or less likely to occur with constant capital than with variable ...
Working Papers , Paper 07-4

Working Paper
Inflation to target : what inflation to target?

This paper derives a central bank's objective function and optimal policy rule for an economy with both CPI and PPI inflation rates. It implements constrained-optimal policy rules with minimal information requirement, and evaluates the robustness of these simple rules when the central bank may not know the exact sources of shocks or nominal rigidities. One of the main findings is that monetary policy that ignores PPI inflation rate or PPI sector shocks can result in significant welfare loss.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 03-10

Working Paper
Multiple stages of processing and the quantity anomaly in international business cycle models.

We construct a two-country DSGE model with multiple stages of processing and local-currency staggered price-setting to study cross-country quantity correlations driven by monetary shocks. The model embodies a mechanism that propagates a monetary surprise in the home country to lower the foreign price level while restraining the home price level from rising too quickly. It does so through reducing material costs in terms of the foreign currency unit while dampening the upward movements in the costs in terms of the home currency unit, both in absolute terms and relative to the costs of primary ...
Working Papers , Paper 04-8

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