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Journal Article
The Tech Pulse Index: recent trends in tech-sector activity
Hobijn, Bart (2009)
This Economic Letter introduces the new Tech Pulse Index, a measure that tracks economic activity in the U.S. information technology (IT) sector. The index first appeared under the sponsorship of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; due to substantial revisions of the econometric model and source data used in the current version, it is not directly comparable to versions released by the New York Fed before August 2008. Starting January 14, 2009, the index will be published every second Wednesday of the month by the San Francisco Fed's CSIP (Center for the Study of Innovation and ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries
Hobijn, Bart (2022-04-04)
The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 08 , Pages 06

Working Paper
The Evolving Core of Usable Macroeconomics for Policymakers
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Hobijn, Bart; Villa, Alessandro (2025-02-27)
We provide a brief primer on how the core of usable macroeconomic theory for monetary policymakers has evolved over the past 50 years. Today’s policy discussions center on the New Keynesian (NK) synthesis, which builds on the Neoclassical growth model and the AS-AD framework. It incorporates nominal and real rigidities, financial and labor market frictions, the importance of expectations, and inspired terms used by policymakers such as “anchored inflation expectations” and “forward guidance.” While essential for communication during the Great Recession and Covid-19 pandemic, these ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2025-02

Working Paper
Which industries are shifting the Beveridge curve?
Sahin, Aysegul; Hobijn, Bart; Barnichon, Regis (2010)
The negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, known as the Beveridge curve, has been relatively stable in the U.S. over the last decade. Since the summer of 2009, however, the U.S. unemployment rate has hovered between 9.4 and 10.1 percent in spite of firms reporting more job openings. We decompose the recent deviation from the Beveridge curve into different parts using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). We find that most of the current deviation from the Beveridge curve can be attributed to a shortfall in the vacancy yield, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2010-32

Journal Article
What has homeland security cost? an assessment: 2001-2005
Sager, Erick; Hobijn, Bart (2007-02)
While homeland security is widely seen as an important national objective, the costs of this effort are not well understood. An analysis of public and private expenditures on homeland security shows that overall spending rose by $44 billion between 2001 and 2005?a clear increase but one that represents a gain of only of 1 percent as a share of U.S. GDP. Private sector expenditures increased very modestly in dollar terms and remained unchanged as a fraction of the sector's GDP.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 13 , Issue Feb

Report
Technology diffusion within central banking: the case of real-time gross settlement
Bech, Morten L.; Hobijn, Bart (2006)
We examine the diffusion of real-time gross settlement (RTGS) technology across all 174 central banks. RTGS reduces settlement risk and facilitates financial innovation in the settlement of foreign exchange trades. In 1985, only three central banks had implemented RTGS systems, and by year-end 2005, that number had increased to ninety. We find that the RTGS diffusion process is consistent with the standard S-curve prediction. Real GDP per capita, the relative price of capital, and trade patterns explain a significant part of the cross-country variation in RTGS adoption. These determinants are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 260

Searching for “Inflation Canaries” in Household Surveys
Brave, Scott A.; Henken, Ben; Hobijn, Bart; Karger, Ezra; Paulson, Anna L.; Royal, Jim (2024-10)
Current surveys of household inflation expectations make it challenging to identify “inflation canaries”—individuals who consistently send out early and accurate warning signals for inflation. We propose some simple changes in survey design (longer, staggered survey panels) and emphasis (focusing on changes in expectations rather than levels and highlighting particularly accurate subpopulations) that have the potential to alleviate these concerns. To demonstrate, we provide several examples using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Chicago Fed Insights , Paper 503

Journal Article
The breadth of disinflation
Hobijn, Bart; Gardiner, Colin (2010)
In recent months, inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index has been trending lower. This slowdown, known as disinflation, has raised concerns that inflation might actually drop below zero and enter a period of deflation. An examination of the distribution of inflation rates across the range of goods and services that compose the index suggests that downward pressures on inflation are relatively high by historical standards.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The U.S. content of “Made in China”
Hobijn, Bart; Hale, Galina (2011)
Goods and services from China accounted for only 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption expenditures in 2010, of which less than half reflected the actual costs of Chinese imports. The rest went to U.S. businesses and workers transporting, selling, and marketing goods carrying the "Made in China" label. Although the fraction is higher when the imported content of goods made in the United States is considered, Chinese imports still make up only a small share of total U.S. consumer spending. This suggests that Chinese inflation will have little direct effect on U.S. consumer prices.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Hobijn, Bart; Bosler, Canyon (2016-07-11)
Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong?defying nearly all earlier projections?and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-14

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