Recent trade liberalization in developing countries: the effects on global trade and output
Many developing countries are currently easing import tariffs and other barriers to trade. This article estimates the impact of these reforms on international trade flows and global output under alternative assumptions about the ability of developing countries to finance increased import purchases. Particular attention is given to the effect of these reforms on the U.S. economy. The author also considers how the trade policies of the United States and other industrialized countries may influence the trade and output effects of the reforms.
The shifting composition of U.S. manufactured goods trade
Finished goods are claiming an increasing share of U.S. imports, while their share of U.S. exports has remained virtually unchanged in recent years. These divergent developments may suggest some erosion of the United States' traditionally strong competitive position in the production of finished goods. The author examines the factors underlying shifts in our trade composition and the implications of recent trends for the nation's trade outlook and competitiveness.
Explaining the persistence of the U.S. trade deficit in the late 1980s
The U.S. trade deficit was twice as large a percentage of U.S. GDP in 1989 as in 1979 although the value of the dollar and the level of U.S. demand relative to foreign demand were roughly comparable in both years. This article investigates the reasons for the deficit's magnitude in the late 1980s. Particular attention is given to two prominent theories about the persistence of the deficit, one focusing on the relationship between exchange rate movements and capital stock developments and the other on shifts in the structure of U.S. trade flows.
Japanese trade balance adjustment to yen appreciation