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High-Skilled Services and Development in China
We document that the employment share of high-skill-intensive services is much lower in China than in countries with similar gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We build a model of structural change with goods and low- and high-skill-intensive services to account for this observation. We find that large distortions limit the size of high-skill-intensive services in China. If they were removed, both high-skill-intensive services and GDP per capita would increase considerably. We document a strong presence of state-owned enterprises in high-skill-intensive services and argue that this presence leads to important distortions.
AUTHORS: Fang, Lei; Herrendorf, Berthold
Growth and the Kaldor Facts
We revisit the Kaldor growth facts for the United States and the United Kingdom during the postwar period. We find that while overall the original Kaldor facts continue to hold, deviations occurred along several dimensions: Instead of staying constant, the growth rates of real GDP per worker and of real capital per worker have slowed down in the United States and the United Kingdom since the 1970s, the capital-to-output ratio has increased in the United Kingdom, and the share of income paid to labor has decreased in the United States since 1990. We discuss how to calculate the Kaldor facts in multi-sector growth models and establish that a slowdown in GDP-per-worker growth naturally results from secular changes in relative prices.
AUTHORS: Valentinyi, Akos; Rogerson, Richard; Herrendorf, Berthold
Transportation and development: insights from the U.S., 1840-1860
We study the effects of large transportation costs on economic development. We argue that the Midwest and the Northeast of the U.S. is a natural case because starting from 1840 decent data is available showing that the two regions shared key characteristics with today?s developing countries and that transportation costs were large and then came way down. To disentangle the effects of the large reduction in transportation costs from those of other changes that happened during 1840?1860, we build a model that speaks to the distribution of people across regions and across the sectors of production. We find that the large reduction in transportation costs was a quantitatively important force behind the settlement of the Midwest and the regional specialization that concentrated agriculture in the Midwest and industry in the Northeast. Moreover, we find that it led to the convergence of the regional per capita incomes measured in current regional prices and that it increased real GDP per capita. However, the increase in real GDP per capita is considerably smaller than that resulting from the productivity growth in the nontransportation sectors.
AUTHORS: Herrendorf, Berthold; Teixeira, Arilton; Schmitz, James A.