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Author:Hernandez, Leonardo 

Conference Paper
Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: filling in the 'hollow middle'?
Following the 1997?98 financial turmoil, crisis countries in Asia moved toward either floating or fixed exchange rate systems, superficially consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes and the ?hollow middle? hypothesis. But some observers have claimed that, despite the changes in their de jure exchange rate regimes, the crisis countries? policies have de facto been very similar in the post- and pre-crisis periods. This paper analyzes the evidence and concludes that, except for Malaysia, which adopted a hard peg and imposed capital controls, the other crisis countries are floating more than before, though less than ?real? floaters do. But the intermediate exchange rate policies pursued by most of the crisis countries during the post-crisis can be justified on second-best arguments.
AUTHORS: Hernandez, Leonardo; Montiel, Peter
DATE: 2002-09

Working Paper
Determinants and repercussions of the composition of capital inflows
The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed the interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital flows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate crises. We find that, while fundamentals matter, capital controls can affect the mix of capital inflows that countries receive. We find that during the Asian crisis countries with more Yen denominated debt faired worse, while during the Mexican crisis larger short-term debt stocks increased the severity of the crisis.
AUTHORS: Carlson, Mark A.; Hernandez, Leonardo
DATE: 2002

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