Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods
In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.
AUTHORS: Demyanyk, Yuliya; Hasan, Iftekhar
A note on competition, fixed costs, and the profitability of depository intermediates
AUTHORS: Hasan, Iftekhar; Smith, Stephen D.
Bank relationships and small firms’ financial performance
We examine the relationship between the number of bank relationships and firms? performance, evaluating possible differential effects related to firms? size. Our sample of firms from Italy includes many small firms, 99 percent of which are not listed and for which bank debt is a major source of financing. In the sample, 4 percent of the firms have a single bank relationship, and 66 percent of them have five or fewer relationships. We find that return on equity and return on assets decrease as the number of bank relationships increases, with a stronger relationship for small firms than for large firms. We also find that interest expense over assets increases as the number of relationships increases. Particularly for small firms, our results are consistent with analyses indicating that fewer bank relationships reduce information asymmetries and agency problems, which outweigh negative effects connected to holdup problems.
AUTHORS: Castelli, Annalisa; Dwyer, Gerald P.; Hasan, Iftekhar
Corporate social responsibility and shareholder's value: an event study analysis
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is increasingly a core component of corporate strategy in the global economy. In recent years its importance has become even greater, primarily because of the financial scandals, investors? losses, and reputational damage to listed companies. While corporations are busy adopting and enhancing CSR practices, there is (beyond very few notable exceptions) no established empirical research on CSR?s impact and relevance in the capital market. This paper investigates this issue by tracing the market reaction to corporate entry and exit from the Domini 400 Social Index, recognized as a CSR benchmark, between 1990 and 2004. The paper highlights two main findings: a significant upward trend in absolute value abnormal returns, irrespective of the type of event (for example, addition or deletion from the index), and a significant negative effect on abnormal returns after exit announcements from the Domini index. The latter effect persists even after controlling for concurring financial distress shocks and stock market seasonality.
AUTHORS: Becchetti, Leonardo; Ciciretti, Rocco; Hasan, Iftekhar
Does geography matter to bondholders?
We find that the location of corporate headquarters significantly affects the firm?s bondholders. Similar to Loughran and Schultz (2006) and others, who show that investors are better able to obtain information on nearby companies, we look at firms located in large metropolitan cities, small cities, and rural areas and find that firms located in remote rural areas exhibit significantly higher costs of debt capital (of up to 65 basis points) in comparison to their urban counterparts. Unlike other studies that focus on the role of information asymmetries in the local bias of investors and decision makers, we are able to show that firms in remote areas experience greater costs of debt capital primarily because of a greater difficulty of monitoring their activities. We find that the adverse impact of bad corporate governance on bondholders is magnified in geographically remote firms, primarily because geographic distance reduces the effectiveness of external monitoring. Consistent with that, we show that in the private placement market, where firms are closely monitored by institutional investors, location plays no role in explaining the cross-sectional variation in the cost of debt capital across companies. We also find that the passage of the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which brought about regulatory improvements in monitoring and governance, significantly reduced the agency costs of debt in rural firms. Taken together, our results indicate that the firm?s information environment interacts with the impact of corporate governance, particularly affecting the effectiveness of external monitoring in alleviating agency problems between insiders and debt holders.
AUTHORS: Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Waisman, Maya
The income smoothing hypothesis: an analysis of the thrift industry
AUTHORS: Hasan, Iftekhar; Hunter, William C.
Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity
In this paper we make use of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) relationship to examine the extent that the liberalization of emerging financial markets has resulted in the integration of developing countries? currency markets into the international capital market. Previous tests of the impact of liberalization on the integration of emerging markets capital markets into world financial markets are confined to equity markets, ignoring currency markets that arguably are more important in determining the success of financial liberalization. We find that, in general, deviation from UIRP in the emerging markets is systematic in nature and that a significant part of emerging market currency excess returns is attributable to time-varying risk premium. Importantly we also find that these countries? currency deposits provide U.S. (equity) investors the benefits of international diversification. Our results also show that for some markets, liberalization improved (worsened) investors? perception of growth opportunity while reducing (increasing) investors' perception of the probability of financial distress. Finally, while several countries benefited from liberalization and have become more integrated into the world capital market, the experience is country specific.
AUTHORS: Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Hunter, Delroy
Suspension of payments, bank failures, and the nonbank public's losses
Arguably, eliminating suspensions of payments--periods when banks jointly refuse to convert their liabilities into outside money or other assets--was an important impetus for creating the Federal Reserve. Friedman and Schwartz suggest that a suspension in 1930 would have decreased the severity of the Great Depression. More recently, an emerging literature suggests that suspensions of payments may well be optimal in some states of the world. We present evidence about suspensions of payments from an episode that is close to a controlled experiment for examining their effects. In 1861, about 44 percent of the banks in Wisconsin closed, 81 percent of the banks in Illinois closed, and noteholders suffered substantial losses. The historical record suggests a possible explanation: an effective suspension of payments in Wisconsin but not Illinois. Historical and statistical evidence indicate that the suspension of payments decreased the number of banks that closed as well as noteholders' losses. Our statistical evidence indicates a 25 percent increase in the probability that an average bank in the two states remains open with the suspension of payments. The suspension of payments decreases noteholders' losses by about 20 cents per dollar of notes.
AUTHORS: Dwyer, Gerald P.; Hasan, Iftekhar
Monetary explanations of the Great Depression: a selective survey of empirical evidence
Seventy years after the Great Depression, economists still debate the causes of this economic catastrophe. Two leading explanations are distinguished by whether or not the Federal Reserve?s monetary policies are perceived as being chiefly responsible for propagating and magnifying the initial contraction into a depression. ; This article surveys recent modeling efforts and empirical work that examine aggregate explanations for the Great Depression from both the extensive literature using vector autoregression techniques and the more recent literature using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling. Neither of these approaches has yielded a consensus about the causes of the depression. ; Data alone are insufficient to distinguish the precise role of monetary policy during that period. The modeling strategies impose restrictions that help isolate the meaningful economic interactions in the data. In each literature, the ways in which the respective models identify monetary policy can differ substantially, and these differences are why monetary policy shocks may or may not explain much of the output contraction. Also, these modeling approaches vary in their ability to capture important institutional features of the banking and financial system. ; The authors believe that the search for one conclusive empirical study of the Great Depression is futile. The most promising path for future research models, they conclude, will entail a sharper focus on the financial sector, a refined specification of how monetary policy affects the real economy, and further methods to incorporate elements of labor market frictions.
AUTHORS: Hasan, Iftekhar; Evans, Paul; Tallman, Ellis W.
Investment analysts' forecasts of earnings
The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004. The evidence indicates substantial asymmetry of earnings, earning forecasts, and forecast errors. There is strong support for average and median earning forecasts being higher than actual earnings a year before the earnings announcement. Such differences between earnings and forecasts also exist across time periods and industries. A month before the earnings announcement, the mean and median differences are small.
AUTHORS: Dwyer, Gerald P.; Hasan, Iftekhar; Ciciretti, Rocco