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Discussion Paper
The Updated Employment Picture
Each year, typically with little fanfare, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases revisions to historical employment data. While you may wonder if this means that history gets rewritten, it's really about making written history more accurate. Revisions are standard practice for not only employment data, but also other economic data. Revisions incorporate more complete underlying data that become available over time, as well as updates to data estimation procedures (most economic data are not based on complete counts; instead, they're based on samples that are used to generate complete ...
Working Paper
Using the Kalman filter to smooth the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
This paper shows how to use the Kalman filter (Kalman 1960) to back out the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In particular, we use the smoothing algorithm as described in Hamilton (1994) to estimate the shocks of a sticky-prices and sticky-wages model using all the information up to the end of the sample.
Discussion Paper
Are Signs of Labor Market Normalization Reflected in Wage Growth?
There have been two salient features of the U.S. economy in the past two years: a tight labor market and high inflation. In the Richmond Fed business surveys, the tight labor market has manifested in a high employment index combined with a low availability of skills index; high inflation has corresponded with extreme elevation in our survey's measures of growth in prices paid and prices received. Recently, all of these survey measures have either reached or made notable progress toward reaching more historically normal levels. It is hard to imagine, however, a rebalanced labor market or ...
Discussion Paper
Signs of a Slowdown? Evidence From Our October Business Surveys
After a few months of upward movement in the headline indexes of our business surveys, results took a downward turn in October. This was especially true in the service sector, where both current and expected activity deteriorated noticeably. However, despite what may be evidence of a shift to a slower pace of demand, firms on balance appear to be holding steady on hiring plans, at least for the near term.
Discussion Paper
How Many Businesses in the Fifth District are Minority-Owned?
Discussion Paper
How to Get the (High-Skilled) Workers?
Over the past year, the labor market has been extremely tight, with record high job openings and historically low unemployment. So, it's no surprise that firms have struggled to find workers. To overcome hiring challenges, firms have been using various strategies, the most common of which is wage increases. Those strategies may be paying off to some extent: Our Fifth District business surveys suggest that the worst of the challenge finding workers has passed. Nonetheless, firms are still reporting difficulties, and our most recent survey revealed a notable shift in the type of workers firms ...
Discussion Paper
Spotlight on Rural Best Practices: Lessons From the 2023 IRA Poster Session
Throughout our region, small towns and rural communities are continually working to improve outcomes for their residents. And we can learn a lot from how different communities, and the organizations within them, are gaining positive traction. What are their ingredients for success?While the mix of ingredients differs from one community to the next, a top five list has emerged from the Richmond Fed's engagement with rural communities over the past several years: 1) regional collaboration; 2) strong local leadership; 3) telling a compelling story; 4) playing to strengths; and 5) taking a ...
Discussion Paper
A Penny for Your Thoughts? How Survey Comments Help Us Understand Our Region’s Labor Market
We regularly report the quantitative results from the Richmond Fed business surveys, but participants' comments also provide useful context for changes in local business conditions. Most recently, a survey of human resources professionals complemented our surveys of area businesses. The comments from both surveys have provided insight into the region's labor market, as well as indicated that the persistent challenge of finding workers has led executives and recruiters to intensify their efforts and expand the tools they use to attract workers.