Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 50.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Real and nominal exchange rates since 1919
Working Paper
Cointegration: how short is the long run?
Working Paper
The effect of marginal tax rates on GNP: 1931 to 1985
Working Paper
An equilibrium model of spot and forward exchange rates
Working Paper
Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts
Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? Recent work suggests that when private agents have diverse sources of information, public information can cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it ...
Journal Article
Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts
The development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has brought significant structural change to the energy sector, increasing energy production and decreasing net energy imports. Future changes in energy policy or technology could have even larger effects on energy exports and thus overall exports. As a result, distinguishing energy from non-energy components of trade becomes important for forecasts in both the near and longer term. Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie introduce models separating energy from the non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production ...
Journal Article
Interest rates and exchange rates--what is the relationship?
Working Paper
Market efficiency and cointegration
Journal Article
PCE and CPI inflation differentials: converting inflation forecasts
The Federal Reserve recently announced it will begin to release quarterly inflation forecasts based on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index. As Chairman Bernanke said, the PCE index is generally thought to be ?the single most comprehensive and theoretically compelling measure of consumer prices.? At the same time, Bernanke said that ?no single measure of inflation is perfect, and the Committee will continue to monitor a range of measures when forming its view about inflation prospects,? including the Consumer Price Index. ; The public and private sectors alike will want to be able ...