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Journal Article
The effects of budget deficit reduction on the exchange rate
Public sector debt in the industrialized world has increased dramatically over the last 15 years. At the June 1996 Economic Summit in Lyon, France, leaders of the seven major industrialized democracies discussed the problems posed by large budget deficits and debt, as well as the potential benefits of regaining fiscal balance. The G-7 leaders agreed that while economic fundamentals in their countries are sound, investment growth, income growth, and job creation all depend on enacting credible fiscal consolidation programs and successful anti-inflationary policies.> While there is general ...
Journal Article
Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts
The development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has brought significant structural change to the energy sector, increasing energy production and decreasing net energy imports. Future changes in energy policy or technology could have even larger effects on energy exports and thus overall exports. As a result, distinguishing energy from non-energy components of trade becomes important for forecasts in both the near and longer term. Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie introduce models separating energy from the non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production ...
Working Paper
Co-integration and the government's budget deficit
Working Paper
Real and nominal exchange rates since 1919
Journal Article
Exchange rate volatility and Federal Reserve policy
Journal Article
Social Security and Medicare : the impending fiscal challenge
Social Security?and the solvency of its Trust Fund?have increasingly become a focus of discussion in the media and policy circles. The basic problem is that promised benefits will soon exceed program revenues. Without changes in benefits or funding, the Trustees of Social Security project that assets in the Trust Fund will be depleted in 2041. While Social Security is a serious problem for taxpayers and beneficiaries, Medicare poses an even greater challenge. Together, the two programs? benefits currently amount to about 6 percent of GDP. By 2080 they are projected to swell to 20 percent. ...
Working Paper
Cointegration: how short is the long run?
Journal Article
Costs and benefits of reducing inflation