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The Structure of Federal Reserve Liabilities
Throughout the financial crisis and its aftermath from late 2008 through October 2014, the Federal Reserve used asset purchases as a potent tool of monetary policy?buying longer-term Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to provide economic stimulus beyond what traditional policy approaches could produce. Consequently, the size and composition of the Fed?s balance sheet changed significantly over this period.
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2017 Results and 2018 Forecasts
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace slightly above average in 2018, with inflation moving up a little and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Economy to Cruise Near Speed Limit in 2017 and 2018 Even as Auto Sales Downshift
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2018. Inflation is expected to increase in 2017 and to hold steady in 2018. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge lower to 4.4% by the end of 2017 and to remain at that rate through 2018. Light vehicle sales are predicted to decrease from 17.5 million units in 2016 to 17.1 million units in 2017 and then to 16.9 million units in 2018.
Do the Employed Get Better Job Offers?
In a previous post, we examined the job search behavior of workers, both on the job and while unemployed. We found that job seeking is pervasive among employed workers, and that searching while employed is more effective than searching while unemployed in producing employer contacts and job offers. But how do the offers received through ?on the job? searches compare to those received while unemployed? What do their wages look like, how do they compare in terms of nonwage benefits, and how much bargaining between employers and job applicants is involved? In this post, we shed some light on how ...
Understanding the Demand for Currency at Home and Abroad
Currency is traditionally the largest liability of a central bank and today accounts for 36% of the Federal Reserve?s liabilities, or $1.59 trillion.1 The Fed supplies currency to meet demand, so changes in the demand for currency will be an important determinant of how the Fed?s balance sheet evolves in the future. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we examine currency demand around the world and over time to learn about the range of possibilities for how U.S. currency demand might change. We then project currency demand over the next decade in several illustrative scenarios.
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2016 Results and 2017 Forecasts
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace slightly above average in 2017, with inflation moving higher and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2018 and Then Ease in 2019 as Auto Sales Downshift
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium (AOS), the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to improve this year and then moderate close to its long-term average in 2019. Inflation is expected to increase in 2018 and to pull back in 2019. The unemployment rate is anticipated to decrease to 3.8% by the end of 2018, but then tick back up next year. Light vehicle sales are predicted to decrease from 17.2 million units in 2017 to 17.0 million units in 2018 and then to 16.7 million units in 201