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Journal Article
Banking and currency crisis recovery: Brazil's turnaround of 1999
Of the many countries that suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s, Brazil and Korea recovered most rapidly. This article analyzes the Brazilian recovery. William Gruben and John Welch focus on the freedom that Brazilian bank health gave to the central bank to pursue a postcrisis monetary policy that would settle markets, reestablish price stability, and encourage investment and the return of foreign capital. Brazilian bank health was not an accident; it reflected not only bank responses to precrisis changes in government regulations, but also to large precrisis interest rate increases ...
Working Paper
Did NAFTA really cause Mexico's high maquiladora growth?
Although Mexico's maquiladora or in-bond plant system is an important and well-recognized component of Mexico-U.S. trade, the connection between the acceleration in maquiladora growth and NAFTA is less clearly understood. A broad cross-section of maquiladora observers - including journalists, political activists, industry analysts, and professors -- argue that Mexico's maquiladoras have been strongly influenced by NAFTA and have grown rapidly as a result. There are reasons to wonder if these conjectures are correct. I test for the contribution of NAFTA to fluctuations in maquiladora ...
Journal Article
Liberalization, privatization, and crash: Mexico's banking system in the 1990's
Although Mexico's 1994 peso devaluation and subsequent capital outflows shook the nation's banking system, the foundations of the banking crisis were laid much earlier. ; Econometric evidence suggests that in the wake of the 1991-92 bank privatizations, Mexico's banks entered a market share struggle in which they incurred short-term losses at the margin, perhaps in the interests of greater expected gains over the long term. ; Euphoric investor behavior and a rising economy may have aggravated the situation by making risky borrowers more difficult to identify.
Journal Article
US-China trade relations: the best of both worlds
Journal Article
Beyond the border: the politics of Brazil's financial troubles
Journal Article
Can U.S.-Mexico free trade last?
Working Paper
When does financial liberalization make banks risky? an empirical examination of Argentina, Canada and Mexico
In the literature on systemic banking crises, two common themes are: (1) lack of market discipline encourages risky lending and (2) financial liberalization or privatization lead to risky lending. However, there is evidence to suggest that neither financial liberalization nor weak market discipline always precedes risky lending. We test for depositor discipline and, separately for post-liberalization or post-privatization risky lending in Argentina, Canada, and Mexico. In the countries without market discipline, lending risk increases significantly in the wake of liberalization. Where ...
Journal Article
Beyond the border : the Asian meltdown
Working Paper
Is tighter fiscal policy expansionary under fiscal dominance? Hypercrowding out in Latin America
We test for hypercrowding out as a signal of market concerns over fiscal dominance in five Latin American countries. Hypercrowding out occurs when fiscally dominated governments domestic credit demands are perceived as so intrusive to a nations financial system that a move towards fiscal surplus lowers interest rates and increases growth. We sample five Latin American countries to test for these relationships. Judged by the results of vector error correction models, three nations test clearly positive, suggesting market concern despite their recent efforts towards fiscal balance.