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Working Paper
Does the Beige Book move financial markets?
About two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic activity in a document called the Beige Book. The authors examine whether the descriptive content of the Beige Book affects asset prices. The results indicate that more positive Beige Book reports on economic growth are associated with increases in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, even after controlling for other macroeconomic data releases. Stronger Beige Book reports are positively associated with changes in equity prices during expansions but negatively during recessions.
Working Paper
Does science discriminate against women? Evidence from academia, 1973–97
This study uses data from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients to evaluate differences in employment outcomes for academic scientists by gender. A decomposition of estimated salary differences shows that over time, gender salary differences can partly be explained by differences in observable characteristics for faculty at the assistant and associate ranks. Substantial gender salary differences for full professors are not explained by observable characteristics. Probit and duration model estimates indicate gender differences in the probability of promotion, making it less likely for women to be ...
Journal Article
Preface: Technology, growth, and the labor market
In recent years, economic prognosticators have pondered whether the U.S. economy has entered a new era characterized by technological innovations that have raised productivity and, accordingly, removed pricing power from producers. Although the 2001 recession quelled debate about whether the United States, and perhaps the world, had entered a period of sustained high levels of economic growth, researchers continue to investigate the economic effects of technological change. ; This issue of the Economic Review contains four articles that examine the underpinnings of the "new ...
Working Paper
Employment of women and demand-side forces
Using the 1964?95 March Current Population Surveys and the 1940?90 Census, this paper examines the relationship between female employment growth and changes in labor demand. Specifically, the authors examine whether industrial change and changes in labor demand can account for both the acceleration and deceleration of female employment growth across the decades as well as the pattern of biased growth in favor of more skilled women. They find that labor demand proxies are successful in accounting for the pattern of biased growth but are less successful in accounting for the overall ...
Journal Article
The Beige Book: Timely information on the regional economy
In making monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) relies in part on the Beige Book, a report on regional economic conditions released publicly about two weeks before each FOMC meeting. The Beige Book summarizes economic conditions in each of the twelve Federal Reserve districts and provides an overview of national conditions based on the regional reports. ; The Reserve Banks gather information for their regional summaries from a variety of sources, including telephone and written surveys, local news reports, and reports on current and expected economic conditions from the ...
Working Paper
Gender differences in salary and promotion for faculty in the humanities, 1977–95
This study uses data from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients to evaluate gender differences in salaries and promotion for academics in the humanities. Differences in employment outcomes by gender are evaluated using three methods: the Oaxaca decomposition is used to examine salary differentials, and binary choice models and duration analysis are used to estimate the probability of promotion to tenure. Over time, gender salary differences can largely be explained by academic rank. Substantial gender differences in promotion to tenure exist after controlling for productivity and demographic ...
Working Paper
Does family structure affect children's educational outcomes?
In this paper we examine the effect of family structure on children?s educational outcomes by exploiting the sibling structure in the NLSY and NLSY-Child to control for unobserved heterogeneity across families and individuals. We also compare outcomes for children within the same family?stepchildren with their half-siblings in the same blended family who are the biological children of both parents. Using panel data methods to control for unobserved heterogeneity across families, we find that family structure effects are statistically insignificant. Finally, comparing half-siblings in our ...
Working Paper
Is the male marriage premium due to selection? The effect of shotgun weddings on the return to marriage
In standard cross-sectional wage regressions, married men appear to earn 10 to 20 percent more than comparable never-married men. One proposed explanation for this male marriage premium is that men may be selected into marriage on the basis of characteristics valued by employers as well as by spouses or because they earn high wages. This paper examines the selection hypothesis using a "natural experiment" that may make marital status uncorrelated with earnings ability for some men. We compare the estimated marriage premium between white men whose first marriages are followed by a birth ...
Journal Article
Regional research and development intensity and earnings inequality
Investment in technology increased rapidly in the United States during the past two decades, leading some to herald the birth of a "new economy." This new economy, marked by rapid productivity growth, rising incomes, low unemployment, and moderate inflation, creates a "rising tide that lifts all boats." However, during the same period U.S. earnings and income inequality increased not only between groups defined by schooling and experience but also within these groups. ; Although many researchers point to technology as the leading explanation for the increase, a cause-effect relationship ...